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ATP Stockholm250Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Fearnley vs Shevchenko 0:2: result and our tips

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Jacob FearnleyATP #90Elo 1956hard 1917
0:2final2:6 4:6
Alexander ShevchenkoATP #108Elo 1792hard 1764

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: FearnleyLost69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fearnley won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches, Shevchenko lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: FearnleyLost74%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 74%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fearnley won 8 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jacob Fearnley73%
Alexander Shevchenko27%

Elo: J. Fearnley 71% · A. Shevchenko 29%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Fearnley50%
2:1 J. Fearnley23%
2:1 A. Shevchenko13%
2:0 A. Shevchenko15%

First set

Jacob Fearnley68%
Alexander Shevchenko32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%68%
20.561%39%60%
21.555%45%54%
22.547%53%46%
23.540%60%40%
24.538%62%38%
25.535%65%35%

Sample: 4,261 matches

Games handicap

J. Fearnley −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes41%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 18 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Jacob FearnleyAlexander Shevchenko
3Aces4
2Double faults1
74%First serves in67%
68%First-serve points won78%
39%Second-serve points won56%
0/1Break points converted3/3
6/9Service games held9/9
60%Service points won70%
30%Return points won40%
46Total points won58

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. FearnleyTourA. Shevchenko
Service points won62%62%63%
Return points won40%38%36%
Service games held76%76%79%
Breaks of serve28%24%20%
Aces per service game0.400.50
Double faults per game0.440.18
Sets with a tie-break21%21%
Tie-breaks won14/3415/32
Wins in straight sets57%53%
Matches in the sample6463

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jacob Fearnley

Alexander Shevchenko

Elo over the last year

Jacob FearnleyAlexander Shevchenko

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. FearnleyA. Shevchenko
Hard court24–2055%16–1946%
Clay2–340%14–1254%
Grass11–473%0–20%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Jacob Fearnley

Alexander Shevchenko

Upcoming matches

See also