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Challenger Villa MariaChallenger 50Round of 32claybest of three sets

Magadan vs Aboian 1:2: result and our tips

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Alan MagadanATP #496Elo 1567clay 1540
1:2final6:4 1:6 1:6
Valerio AboianATP #258Elo 1706clay 1714

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won56%

Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 56%

Aboian: 7 matches in a row over 19.5 games; Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Magadan 13 of 20, Aboian 15 of 20 (tour average 59%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Magadan: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

  • Match Winner: AboianWon75%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Aboian won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Won43%

Where the number comes from: market alone 48% → with the players' profiles 43%

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Magadan 12 of 20, Aboian 14 of 20 (tour average 46%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alan Magadan25%
Valerio Aboian75%

Elo: A. Magadan 27% · V. Aboian 73%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Magadan14%
2:1 A. Magadan12%
2:1 V. Aboian22%
2:0 V. Aboian51%

First set

Alan Magadan32%
Valerio Aboian68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%27%76%
18.564%36%68%
19.556%44%59%
20.550%50%52%
21.544%57%46%
22.538%62%40%
23.535%65%36%

Sample: 3,246 matches

Games handicap

V. Aboian −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 24 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Alan MagadanValerio Aboian
2Aces4
2Double faults1
77%First serves in61%
56%First-serve points won65%
35%Second-serve points won61%
2/8Break points converted6/14
6/12Service games held10/12
51%Service points won63%
37%Return points won49%
73Total points won92

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. MagadanTourV. Aboian
Service points won61%62%59%
Return points won40%38%42%
Service games held74%76%70%
Breaks of serve26%24%31%
Aces per service game0.380.43
Double faults per game0.290.19
Sets with a tie-break14%11%
Tie-breaks won8/138/17
Wins in straight sets55%41%
Matches in the sample3962

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alan Magadan

  • 28/10/26LCarlos Maria Zarate#341Challenger Guayaquil · R325:7 1:6
  • 27/10/26WTristan McCormick#635Challenger Guayaquil · Q26:3 6:2
  • 25/10/26WMario Andre GalarragaChallenger Guayaquil · Q16:3 6:4
  • 19/10/26LDaniel Salazar Martinez#649Challenger Cali · Q23:6 1:6
  • 18/10/26WJuan Miguel Bolivar IdarragaChallenger Cali · Q16:3 6:2
  • 05/10/26LJoao Eduardo Schiessl#551Challenger Antofagasta · Q21:6 4:6
  • 04/10/26WNicolas Bruna#997Challenger Antofagasta · Q13:6 6:3 7:6
  • 20/08/26LColeman Wong#85Challenger Cancun · R164:6 6:1 6:7
  • 20/08/26WAlex Hernandez#469Challenger Cancun · R324:6 6:0 6:4
  • 19/08/26WRio Noguchi#219Challenger Cancun · Q26:3 7:6

Valerio Aboian

Elo over the last year

Alan MagadanValerio Aboian

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. MagadanV. Aboian
Hard court9–950%0–0
Clay11–1052%37–2560%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also