Challenger MatsuyamaChallenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets
Noguchi vs Michalski: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Rio Noguchi55%
Daniel Michalski45%
Elo: R. Noguchi 57% · D. Michalski 43%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 R. Noguchi35%
2:1 R. Noguchi20%
2:1 D. Michalski18%
2:0 D. Michalski27%
First set
Rio Noguchi54%
Daniel Michalski46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 71% | 30% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 63% | 38% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 57% | 44% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 63% | 35% |
Sample: 5,777 matches
Games handicap
R. Noguchi −1.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes27%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| R. Noguchi | Tour | D. Michalski | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 60% | 62% | 59% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 72% | 76% | 70% |
| Breaks of serve | 30% | 24% | 29% |
| Aces per service game | 0.14 | 0.22 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.17 | 0.18 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 10% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 6/18 | 3/10 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 47% | |
| Matches in the sample | 62 | 41 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Rio Noguchi
- 27/10/26LAlibek Kachmazov#347Challenger Seoul · R323:6 1:6
- 20/10/26LKasidit Samrej#409Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R326:2 1:6 6:7
- 05/10/26LAlexandre Muller#146ATP Shanghai · Q13:6 6:4 1:6
- 23/09/26LDalibor Svrcina#119ATP Hangzhou · Q24:6 1:6
- 22/09/26WMasamichi Imamura#437ATP Hangzhou · Q16:1 6:4
- 18/09/26LPavel Kotov#170Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · QF1:6 6:7
- 16/09/26WColin Sinclair#485Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R166:3 6:3
- 14/09/26WKaichi Uchida#401Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R323:6 6:2 6:3
- 09/09/26LOmar Jasika#329Challenger Shanghai · R162:6 5:7
- 07/09/26WRigele TE#740Challenger Shanghai · R327:6 6:2
Daniel Michalski
- 02/11/26LAugust Holmgren#267Challenger Taipei · R323:6 4:6
- 15/09/26LMarvin Moeller#227Challenger Szczecin · R322:6 4:6
- 13/08/26LLukas Neumayer#155Challenger Todi · R166:4 5:7 0:6
- 11/08/26WLorenzo Carboni#552Challenger Todi · R326:0 6:3
- 18/07/26LFederico Cina#136ATP Kitzbuhel · Q12:6 6:3 1:6
- 11/07/26LCalvin Hemery#274ATP Gstaad · Q16:7 6:2 3:6
- 09/07/26LKimmer Coppejans#225Challenger Liege · R164:6 5:7
- 07/07/26WPedro Boscardin Dias#300Challenger Liege · R326:2 6:1
- 30/06/26LFrancesco Passaro#153Challenger Milan · R324:6 5:7
- 25/06/26LInaki Montes-de la Torre#191Challenger Plovdiv · QF5:7 2:6
Elo over the last year
Rio NoguchiDaniel Michalski
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| R. Noguchi | D. Michalski | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 30–2258% | 8–657% |
| Clay | 1–233% | 9–1833% |
| Grass | 3–443% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
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