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Challenger CaliChallenger 75Finalclaybest of three sets

Pucinelli de Almeida vs Aboian 2:0: result and our tips

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Matheus Pucinelli de AlmeidaATP #196Elo 1797clay 1810
2:0final7:6(1) 6:3
Valerio AboianATP #283Elo 1678clay 1683

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Pucinelli de AlmeidaWon75%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Pucinelli de Almeida won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Aboian lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%); Pucinelli de Almeida: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 17.5Won65%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 73% → with the players' profiles 65%

    Pucinelli de Almeida: 13 matches in a row over 17.5 games

Long shot
Total Sets: Over 2.5Lost31%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A third set in recent matches: Pucinelli de Almeida 8 of 20, Aboian 13 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida82%
Valerio Aboian18%

Elo: M. Pucinelli de Almeida 68% · V. Aboian 33%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Pucinelli de Almeida59%
2:1 M. Pucinelli de Almeida22%
2:1 V. Aboian9%
2:0 V. Aboian10%

First set

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida75%
Valerio Aboian26%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 57%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.575%25%84%
17.565%35%76%
18.555%45%68%
19.548%52%59%
20.543%57%52%
21.537%63%47%
22.533%67%40%

Sample: 2,269 matches

Games handicap

M. Pucinelli de Almeida −5.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes17%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 20.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Matheus Pucinelli de AlmeidaValerio Aboian
2Aces3
5Double faults2
66%First serves in47%
73%First-serve points won59%
44%Second-serve points won44%
4/11Break points converted2/10
8/10Service games held7/11
63%Service points won51%
49%Return points won37%
92Total points won75

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. Pucinelli de AlmeidaTourV. Aboian
Service points won62%62%59%
Return points won44%38%42%
Service games held77%76%70%
Breaks of serve34%24%31%
Aces per service game0.200.43
Double faults per game0.260.19
Sets with a tie-break11%9%
Tie-breaks won5/145/12
Wins in straight sets66%41%
Matches in the sample5357

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Valerio Aboian

Elo over the last year

Matheus Pucinelli de AlmeidaValerio Aboian

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. Pucinelli de AlmeidaV. Aboian
Hard court3–443%0–0
Clay32–1470%34–2360%

Head to head

M. Pucinelli de Almeida 1–1 V. Aboian

  • 07/05/26Winner: M. Pucinelli de Almeida6:3 6:2
  • 12/03/24Winner: V. Aboian4:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Valerio Aboian

See also