Primera LPFMatchday 11

Atl. Tucuman 2-3 Barracas Central: prediction, tips and result

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Atl. Tucuman
0-00-02-11-20-1
2-3Full time(half time 1-0)
Barracas Central
0-11-10-00-01-2
Stadium:
Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro, San Miguel de Tucuman
Referee:
Nicolas Ramirez

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards: Under 5.5Won62%

under 5.5 cards in 10 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (61% of league matches); 3.5 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 4.9 in the visitors', league average 5.0

Other tips

  • Both Teams To Score: NoLost61%

    at least one side without a goal in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (54% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Atl. Tucuman: Over 2.5Lost56%

    our numbers for Atl. Tucuman: 3.0 offsides against a league average of 1.7; Atl. Tucuman: 2.6 offsides a match, Barracas Central's opponents were caught offside 3.2 times on average, league average 1.7

  • Shots on Target – Atl. Tucuman: Under 4.5Lost64%

    Atl. Tucuman: 2.6 shots on target a match, Barracas Central's opponents had 4.3 on average, league average 4.4; our numbers for Atl. Tucuman: 3.9 shots on target against a league average of 4.4

  • Fouls: Under 22.5Won62%

    our numbers: 21.1 fouls against a league average of 22.7; under 22.5 fouls in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 10 (49% of league matches)

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:0Lost16%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloAtl. Tucuman156650%43%Draw31%30%Barracas Central157619%27%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS37%44%O2.532%38%|exp. goals 1.3 : 0.9both scored
H2Hlast 4 meetings
  1. Barracas Central2:1Atl. TucumanL
  2. Barracas Central0:2Atl. TucumanW
  3. Atl. Tucuman1:1Barracas CentralD
  4. Atl. Tucuman4:0Barracas CentralW
Atl. Tucuman's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.6league 8.7under 8.5: 51%Expected corners: 8.6 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 8.5 corners.won · ended 8
Cardsleague cards5.0league 5.0under 5.5: 62%Expected cards: 5.0 in this match, 5.0 on average in the league.In this league 61% of matches end under 5.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.won · ended 5
RefereeN. Ramirez+0.3 cards vs average20 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)79%O1.51:0coverageleague 76% · H2H 4/4covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 0.7total 2.0Attack/defence1.3 : 0.9total 2.2
Atl. Tucuman : Barracas Central
Most likely scores
Market1-017%0-015%1-113%2-011%0-19%2-1—Attack/defence1-014%0-012%1-113%2-09%0-110%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-017%1-014%0-00-015%0-012%1-11-113%1-113%2-02-011%2-09%0-10-19%0-110%2-12-1—2-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals86%82%82%
1X – home team avoid defeat81%74%74%
12 – no draw69%71%71%
Under 2.5 goals68%63%63%
Both teams to score: no63%56%56%
Over 1.5 goals60%64%64%
1 – Atl. Tucuman win50%45% · Elo 43%45%· Elo 43%
X2 – away team avoid defeat50%55%55%
Under 1.5 goals40%36%36%
Both teams to score: yes37%44%44%
Over 2.5 goals32%38%38%
X – draw31%29% · Elo 30%29%· Elo 30%
2 – Barracas Central win19%26% · Elo 27%26%· Elo 27%
Over 3.5 goals14%18%18%
Attack vs defence
Atl. Tucuman attack vs Barracas Central defenceattack1479defence1491−12 pts to the attack
Barracas Central attack vs Atl. Tucuman defenceattack1444defence1482−38 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 7.3 in this match, 7.8 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.559%61%
7.545%50%
8.532%39%
9.521%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Atl. Tucumanwe expect 3.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Barracas Centralwe expect 3.1, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 36%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%
We expect 21.1 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.545%55%
22.538%51%
23.531%46%
24.526%38%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Atl. Tucumanwe expect 9.9, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Barracas Centralwe expect 11.1, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 44%
Referee: 22.9 fouls per match on average (23 matches in our data)−0.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 4.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.578%65%
3.560%41%
4.541%26%
5.525%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Atl. Tucumanwe expect 3.0, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 78%
Barracas Centralwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 37%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Atl. Tucuman matches average only 3.5 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Barracas Central: only 1 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Barracas Central score only 0.5 goals per game
  • Atl. Tucuman concede only 0.6 goals per game
  • Atl. Tucuman score only 0.7 goals per game
  • Barracas Central: no win in 7 matches
  • Atl. Tucuman: 12 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Barracas Central: 12 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Atl. Tucuman

Barracas Central

League position

Clausura, Group B

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Barracas Central1253410:918
10Atl. Tucuman1235410:1014
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Atl. Tucuman vs Barracas Central?

Atl. Tucuman 2-3 Barracas Central (half time 1-0).

Did the Atl. Tucuman vs Barracas Central tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards: Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also