Primera LPFMatchday 11

Ind. Rivadavia 1-1 Gimnasia L.P.: prediction, tips and result

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Ind. Rivadavia
0-03-11-34-31-0
1-1Full time(half time 1-0)
Gimnasia L.P.
2-21-12-12-12-3
Stadium:
Estadio Bautista Gargantini, Mendoza
Referee:
Brian Ferreyra

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Offsides: Over 3.5Lost60%

our numbers: 4.2 offsides against a league average of 3.4; 4.5 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 4.4 in the visitors', league average 3.4

Other tips

  • Fouls – Ind. Rivadavia: Over 10.5Lost61%

    Ind. Rivadavia: over 10.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Gimnasia L.P.'s opponents committed over 10.5 in 7 of 10 (50% of league matches); our numbers for Ind. Rivadavia: 11.8 fouls against a league average of 10.9

  • Shots on Target – Ind. Rivadavia: Over 4.5Won61%

    our numbers for Ind. Rivadavia: 5.4 shots on target against a league average of 4.4

For the brave
Offsides: Over 4.5Lost41%

4.5 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 4.4 in the visitors', league average 3.4; our numbers: 4.2 offsides against a league average of 3.4

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloInd. Rivadavia170243%52%Draw30%28%Gimnasia L.P.162427%20%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%50%O2.542%47%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.0both scored
H2Hlast 2 meetings
  1. Gimnasia L.P.2:3Ind. RivadaviaW
  2. Ind. Rivadavia1:0Gimnasia L.P.W
Ind. Rivadavia's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses3.0 goals per match
too few to read anything into
Cornersleague corners8.6league 8.7under 8.5: 51%Expected corners: 8.6 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 8.5 corners.won · ended 8
Cardsleague cards4.8league 5.0under 5.5: 64%Expected cards: 4.8 in this match, 5.0 on average in the league.In this league 61% of matches end under 5.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 20%.won · ended 4
RefereeB. Ferreyra−0.7 cards vs average6 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%U2.52:1coverageleague 75% · H2H 1/2covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.0total 2.3Attack/defence1.6 : 1.0total 2.6
Ind. Rivadavia : Gimnasia L.P.
Most likely scores
Market1-114%1-012%0-010%2-19%2-0—0-19%Attack/defence1-113%1-012%0-08%2-19%2-09%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-012%1-012%0-00-010%0-08%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-0—2-09%0-10-19%0-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals79%75%75%
1X – home team avoid defeat73%76%76%
12 – no draw70%74%74%
Over 1.5 goals69%72%72%
Under 2.5 goals58%53%53%
X2 – away team avoid defeat57%50%50%
Both teams to score: no52%50%50%
Both teams to score: yes48%50%50%
1 – Ind. Rivadavia win43%50% · Elo 52%50%· Elo 52%
Over 2.5 goals42%47%47%
Under 1.5 goals31%28%28%
X – draw30%26% · Elo 28%26%· Elo 28%
2 – Gimnasia L.P. win27%24% · Elo 20%24%· Elo 20%
Over 3.5 goals21%25%25%
Attack vs defence
Ind. Rivadavia attack vs Gimnasia L.P. defenceattack1561defence1465+96 pts to the attack
Gimnasia L.P. attack vs Ind. Rivadavia defenceattack1507defence1489+18 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 8.5 in this match, 7.8 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.573%61%
7.560%50%
8.547%39%
9.535%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Ind. Rivadaviawe expect 5.4, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 61%
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 3.5, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 47%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 22.6 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.555%55%
22.548%51%
23.541%46%
24.535%38%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Ind. Rivadaviawe expect 11.8, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 61%
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 10.5, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 36%
Referee: 23.3 fouls per match on average (7 matches in our data)+0.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 4.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.578%65%
3.560%41%
4.541%27%
5.525%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Ind. Rivadaviawe expect 2.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 76%
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 43%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Ind. Rivadavia

Gimnasia L.P.

League position

Clausura, Group B

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Gimnasia L.P.1254317:1719
8Ind. Rivadavia1253415:1918
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Ind. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.?

Ind. Rivadavia 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. (half time 1-0).

Did the Ind. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Offsides: Over 3.5. The tip lost.

See also