Primera LPFMatchday 12

River Plate 1-0 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto: prediction, tips and result

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River Plate
2-23-23-12-11-2
1-0Full time(half time 1-0)
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
1-21-21-20-21-1
Stadium:
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires
Referee:
Nazareno Arasa

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won60%

4.9 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 4.0 in the visitors', league average 5.3; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Estudiantes Rio Cuarto: Under 3.5Won70%

    our numbers for Estudiantes Rio Cuarto: 2.7 shots on target against a league average of 3.5; Estudiantes Rio Cuarto: 2.6 shots on target a match, River Plate's opponents had 2.9 on average, league average 3.5

  • Fouls – River Plate: Under 10.5Won57%

    our numbers for River Plate: 10.1 fouls against a league average of 11.0

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Won44%

under 4.5 card points in 5 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (41% of league matches); 4.9 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 4.0 in the visitors', league average 5.3; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloRiver Plate171282%67%Draw13%21%Estudiantes Rio Cuarto14785%12%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS29%42%O2.552%49%|exp. goals 2.0 : 0.7not both scored
H2Hlast meeting
  1. Estudiantes Rio Cuarto0:2River PlateW
River Plate's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses2.0 goals per match
too few to read anything into
Cornersleague corners8.6league 8.8under 8.5: 51%Expected corners: 8.6 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end under 8.5 corners.lost · ended 14
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.8over 4.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 24%.lost · ended 2
RefereeN. Arasa+0.1 yellow cards vs average26 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%O2.52:0coverageleague 44% · H2H 1/1not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.4 : 0.4total 2.8Attack/defence2.0 : 0.7total 2.6
River Plate : Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
Most likely scores
Market2-018%1-015%3-014%1-1—2-1—4-08%0-07%Attack/defence2-014%1-014%3-09%1-110%2-19%4-0—0-08%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-018%2-014%1-01-015%1-014%3-03-014%3-09%1-11-1—1-110%2-12-1—2-19%4-04-08%4-0—0-00-07%0-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat95%88%88%
12 – no draw87%79%79%
1 – River Plate win82%67% · Elo 67%67%· Elo 67%
Over 1.5 goals76%74%74%
Both teams to score: no71%58%58%
Under 3.5 goals70%73%73%
Over 2.5 goals52%49%49%
Under 2.5 goals48%52%52%
Over 3.5 goals30%27%27%
Both teams to score: yes29%42%42%
Under 1.5 goals24%26%26%
X2 – away team avoid defeat18%33%33%
X – draw13%21% · Elo 21%21%· Elo 21%
2 – Estudiantes Rio Cuarto win5%12% · Elo 12%12%· Elo 12%
Attack vs defence
River Plate attack vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto defenceattack1630defence1421+209 pts to the attack
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto attack vs River Plate defenceattack1350defence1567−217 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 7.5 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.561%63%
7.547%51%
8.534%40%
9.523%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
River Platewe expect 4.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
Estudiantes Rio Cuartowe expect 2.8, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 30%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 21.4 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.547%56%
22.540%50%
23.533%45%
24.527%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
River Platewe expect 10.1, league average 11.0 · chance of over 10.5: 43%
Estudiantes Rio Cuartowe expect 12.2, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 55%
Referee: 21.8 fouls per match on average (25 matches in our data)−1.6 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.563%65%
3.542%41%
4.524%26%
5.512%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
River Platewe expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Estudiantes Rio Cuartowe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 44%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Estudiantes Rio Cuarto score only 0.5 goals per game
  • Estudiantes Rio Cuarto: 4 defeats in a row
  • River Plate: only 13 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 19 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Estudiantes Rio Cuarto: only 3 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 9 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • River Plate concede a lot late on: 9 of 20 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Estudiantes Rio Cuarto: newly promoted
  • River Plate: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Estudiantes Rio Cuarto: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

River Plate

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto

League position

Clausura, Group B

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9River Plate1151514:1216
15Estudiantes Rio Cuarto121386:166
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of River Plate vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto?

River Plate 1-0 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto (half time 1-0).

Did the River Plate vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also