League OneMatchday 11
Peterboro vs Burton: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%56%O2.560%52%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Peterboro1:1BurtonD
- Burton0:1PeterboroW
- Burton2:2PeterboroD
- Peterboro0:1BurtonL
- Burton1:3PeterboroW
Peterboro's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.5under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.7under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.3total 3.2Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.8
Peterboro : BurtonMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%1-07%2-08%0-1—1-27%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%2-07%0-18%1-28%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-110%2-19%1-01-07%1-09%2-02-08%2-07%0-10-1—0-18%1-21-27%1-28%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%69% | 69% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%70% | 70% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Peterboro win | 51%43% · Elo 39% | 43%· Elo 39% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 49%57% | 57% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%30% | 30% |
| 2 – Burton win | 25%31% · Elo 34% | 31%· Elo 34% |
| X – draw | 24%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Peterboro attack vs Burton defenceattack1487defence14870 pts to the attack
Burton attack vs Peterboro defenceattack1441defence1431+10 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 6.9 in this match, 7.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.552%61%
7.538%43%
8.526%30%
9.516%17%
Each team on its own
Peterborowe expect 3.5, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 47%
Burtonwe expect 3.1, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 38%
Foulsleague average
Under 18.5 · 71%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 29%
We expect 16.2 in this match, 18.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.17.537%56%
18.529%53%
19.523%53%
20.517%51%
Each team on its own
Peterborowe expect 7.7, league average 8.9 · chance of over 8.5: 37%
Burtonwe expect 8.1, league average 9.8 · chance of over 9.5: 31%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%60%
3.545%43%
4.527%23%
5.514%14%
Each team on its own
Peterborowe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Burtonwe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Burton concede a lot late on: 10 of 25 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Peterboro: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Burton: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Burton | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 20 | Peterboro | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:14 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Peterboro vs Burton?
Peterboro are the favourites. Chances: Peterboro win 51%, draw 24%, Burton win 25%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Peterboro vs Burton?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Peterboro 1.9, Burton 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Peterboro vs Burton?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Peterboro vs Burton?
The League One match kicks off 17 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).