League TwoMatchday 11
Accrington vs Gillingham: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%47%O2.549%41%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Gillingham2:0AccringtonL
- Accrington1:1GillinghamD
- Accrington1:1GillinghamD
- Gillingham1:2AccringtonW
- Accrington1:2GillinghamL
Accrington's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.7over 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.2total 2.6Attack/defence1.3 : 1.0total 2.3
Accrington : GillinghamMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-09%0-08%0-18%2-19%2-0—Attack/defence1-114%1-012%0-010%0-110%2-18%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-114%1-01-09%1-012%0-00-08%0-010%0-10-18%0-110%2-12-19%2-18%2-02-0—2-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%67% | 67% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%71% | 71% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%80% | 80% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 67%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 60%59% | 59% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%41% | 41% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Accrington win | 40%41% · Elo 38% | 41%· Elo 38% |
| 2 – Gillingham win | 33%30% · Elo 34% | 30%· Elo 34% |
| X – draw | 27%29% · Elo 28% | 29%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%20% | 20% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%33% | 33% |
Attack vs defence
Accrington attack vs Gillingham defenceattack1432defence1452−20 pts to the attack
Gillingham attack vs Accrington defenceattack1450defence1485−35 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 7.6 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.563%61%
7.549%45%
8.536%27%
9.525%17%
Each team on its own
Accringtonwe expect 4.2, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Gillinghamwe expect 3.5, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 50%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 50%
We expect 20.8 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.557%61%
20.550%57%
21.543%51%
22.536%45%
Each team on its own
Accringtonwe expect 10.9, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Gillinghamwe expect 9.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 40%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.554%58%
3.532%41%
4.517%28%
5.58%11%
Each team on its own
Accringtonwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Gillinghamwe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15:10 | 16 |
| 15 | Accrington | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:14 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Accrington vs Gillingham?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Accrington win 40%, draw 27%, Gillingham win 33%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Accrington vs Gillingham?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Accrington 1.4, Gillingham 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Accrington vs Gillingham?
The chance that both teams score is 55%.
When is Accrington vs Gillingham?
The League Two match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).