League TwoMatchday 11
Crewe vs Rochdale: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%46%O2.553%39%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Crewe1:1RochdaleD
- Rochdale1:2CreweW
- Crewe1:1RochdaleD
- Rochdale3:3CreweD
- Rochdale2:2CreweD
Crewe's record: 1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 9.9over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.7under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.1total 2.8Attack/defence1.2 : 1.0total 2.3
Crewe : RochdaleMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-010%0-07%0-1—2-110%2-09%Attack/defence1-114%1-013%0-011%0-110%2-18%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-114%1-01-010%1-013%0-00-07%0-011%0-10-1—0-110%2-12-110%2-18%2-02-09%2-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%66% | 66% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 76%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%71% | 71% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%81% | 81% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55%46% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%39% | 39% |
| 1 – Crewe win | 51%41% · Elo 52% | 41%· Elo 52% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 49%59% | 59% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%61% | 61% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%54% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%19% | 19% |
| X – draw | 25%29% · Elo 26% | 29%· Elo 26% |
| 2 – Rochdale win | 24%30% · Elo 23% | 30%· Elo 23% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%34% | 34% |
Attack vs defence
Crewe attack vs Rochdale defenceattack1496defence1530−34 pts to the attack
Rochdale attack vs Crewe defenceattack1484defence1531−47 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 6.8 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.552%61%
7.537%45%
8.525%27%
9.516%17%
Each team on its own
Crewewe expect 3.6, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 30%
Rochdalewe expect 2.8, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 20.3 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.554%61%
20.546%57%
21.539%51%
22.532%45%
Each team on its own
Crewewe expect 10.1, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 43%
Rochdalewe expect 10.1, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 42%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%58%
3.547%41%
4.528%28%
5.515%11%
Each team on its own
Crewewe expect 2.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 66%
Rochdalewe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Crewe: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Crewe: unbeaten in 11 matches
- Rochdale: newly promoted
- Crewe: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Rochdale: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12:7 | 18 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:12 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Crewe vs Rochdale?
Crewe are the favourites. Chances: Crewe win 51%, draw 25%, Rochdale win 24%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Crewe vs Rochdale?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Crewe 1.7, Rochdale 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Rochdale?
The chance that both teams score is 55%.
When is Crewe vs Rochdale?
The League Two match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).