League TwoMatchday 9

Rochdale 1-0 Swindon: prediction, tips and result

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Rochdale
3-01-40-02-02-1
1-0Full time(half time 0-0)
Swindon
1-10-10-43-13-1
Stadium:
Spotland, Rochdale

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Fouls – Rochdale: Under 9.574%

our numbers for Rochdale: 7.7 fouls against a league average of 10.2; Rochdale: 8.1 fouls a match, Swindon's opponents committed 5.9 on average, league average 10.2

Other tips

  • Offsides – Rochdale: Over 1.556%

    Rochdale: over 1.5 offsides in 4 of their last 7 league matches, Swindon's opponents were caught offside over 1.5 times in 6 of 7 (48% of league matches); 1.7 offsides a match, Swindon's opponents were caught offside 2.4 times on average, league average 1.6

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost13%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloRochdale107142%32%Draw26%28%Swindon112832%40%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%52%O2.559%48%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Rochdale4:4SwindonD
  2. Swindon3:0RochdaleL
  3. Rochdale0:0SwindonD
  4. Swindon2:2RochdaleD
  5. Rochdale2:1SwindonW
Rochdale's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss3.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end over 9.5 corners.won · ended 16
Cardsleague cards3.6league 3.8under 3.5: 52%Expected cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.won · ended 2
Refereeawaiting appointment
Dutching(several bets at once)68%X22:1coverageleague 66% · H2H 5/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.4total 3.0Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.6
Rochdale : Swindon
Most likely scores
Market1-112%1-07%2-19%0-1—1-28%0-0—2-06%Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-19%0-19%1-2—0-08%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-07%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-19%1-21-28%1-2—0-00-0—0-08%2-02-06%2-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals82%73%73%
12 – no draw74%73%73%
1X – home team avoid defeat68%69%69%
Under 3.5 goals64%74%74%
Both teams to score: yes62%52%52%
Over 2.5 goals59%48%48%
X2 – away team avoid defeat58%58%58%
1 – Rochdale win42%42% · Elo 32%42%· Elo 32%
Under 2.5 goals41%53%53%
Both teams to score: no38%48%48%
Over 3.5 goals36%26%26%
2 – Swindon win32%31% · Elo 40%31%· Elo 40%
X – draw26%27% · Elo 28%27%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals18%27%27%
Attack vs defence
Rochdale attack vs Swindon defenceattack1493defence1467+26 pts to the attack
Swindon attack vs Rochdale defenceattack1536defence1522+14 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 7.0 in this match, 7.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.555%60%
7.541%44%
8.528%25%
9.518%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Rochdalewe expect 4.0, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 38%
Swindonwe expect 2.8, league average 3.2 · chance of over 3.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 77%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 23%
We expect 17.1 in this match, 20.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.529%60%
20.523%56%
21.518%48%
22.513%43%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Rochdalewe expect 7.7, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 17%
Swindonwe expect 9.0, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 30%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.569%60%
3.548%43%
4.530%29%
5.516%13%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Rochdalewe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Swindonwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 50%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Swindon matches average 12.2 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Rochdale: newly promoted
  • Rochdale: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Swindon: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Rochdale

Swindon

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Rochdale1042411:1214
17Swindon103259:1411
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Rochdale vs Swindon?

Rochdale 1-0 Swindon (half time 0-0).

See also