League TwoMatchday 11
Grimsby vs Northampton: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%47%O2.552%42%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Northampton1:2GrimsbyW
- Grimsby1:1NorthamptonD
- Grimsby0:3NorthamptonL
- Northampton2:0GrimsbyL
- Grimsby0:0NorthamptonD
Grimsby's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.7over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 1.0total 2.8Attack/defence1.4 : 1.0total 2.4
Grimsby : NorthamptonMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-011%2-010%2-110%0-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-013%2-09%2-19%0-010%0-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-011%1-013%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-110%2-19%0-00-07%0-010%0-10-1—0-19%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%68% | 68% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%72% | 72% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%79% | 79% |
| 1 – Grimsby win | 56%45% · Elo 47% | 45%· Elo 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52%42% | 42% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: no | 48%53% | 53% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 44%55% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%21% | 21% |
| X – draw | 24%28% · Elo 27% | 28%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%32% | 32% |
| 2 – Northampton win | 20%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
Attack vs defence
Grimsby attack vs Northampton defenceattack1563defence1540+23 pts to the attack
Northampton attack vs Grimsby defenceattack1479defence1541−62 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 7.4 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.560%61%
7.546%45%
8.533%27%
9.522%17%
Each team on its own
Grimsbywe expect 4.5, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
Northamptonwe expect 2.9, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 34%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 59%close to the league averageunder 41%over
We expect 22.1 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.566%61%
20.559%57%
21.552%51%
22.545%45%
Each team on its own
Grimsbywe expect 10.7, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 50%
Northamptonwe expect 11.6, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 59%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over
We expect 3.7 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.571%58%
3.550%41%
4.531%28%
5.517%11%
Each team on its own
Grimsbywe expect 2.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 68%
Northamptonwe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Northampton8 matches in a row under 2.5 goalsaway: 4Went on 56%League 57%Model 48%Record 16
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Grimsby matches average 12.3 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Northampton: newly promoted
- Grimsby: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Northampton: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:7 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Grimsby vs Northampton?
Grimsby are the favourites. Chances: Grimsby win 56%, draw 24%, Northampton win 20%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Grimsby vs Northampton?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Grimsby 1.8, Northampton 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Northampton?
The chance that both teams score is 52%.
When is Grimsby vs Northampton?
The League Two match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).