League TwoMatchday 11
Port Vale vs Chesterfield: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%50%O2.551%44%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Chesterfield1:1Port ValeD
- Port Vale1:0ChesterfieldW
- Port Vale2:1ChesterfieldW
- Chesterfield2:0Port ValeL
- Chesterfield1:0Port ValeL
Port Vale's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.6league 9.9under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.6 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.7over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.4total 2.7Attack/defence1.2 : 1.2total 2.4
Port Vale : ChesterfieldMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-08%0-18%0-0—1-28%2-18%Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-110%0-09%1-28%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-08%1-011%0-10-18%0-110%0-00-0—0-09%1-21-28%1-28%2-12-18%2-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%72% | 72% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71%77% | 77% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 65%63% | 63% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 62%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56%50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: no | 44%50% | 50% |
| 2 – Chesterfield win | 38%35% · Elo 31% | 35%· Elo 31% |
| 1 – Port Vale win | 35%37% · Elo 41% | 37%· Elo 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29%23% | 23% |
| X – draw | 27%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%30% | 30% |
Attack vs defence
Port Vale attack vs Chesterfield defenceattack1499defence1533−34 pts to the attack
Chesterfield attack vs Port Vale defenceattack1577defence1538+39 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 7.5 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.561%61%
7.547%45%
8.534%27%
9.523%17%
Each team on its own
Port Valewe expect 4.1, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
Chesterfieldwe expect 3.4, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 53%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 20.5 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.555%61%
20.547%57%
21.540%51%
22.533%45%
Each team on its own
Port Valewe expect 11.0, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
Chesterfieldwe expect 9.4, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 35%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over
We expect 3.7 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.571%58%
3.550%41%
4.531%28%
5.517%11%
Each team on its own
Port Valewe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Chesterfieldwe expect 2.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 67%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Port Vale: newly promoted
- Port Vale: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Chesterfield: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4:9 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Port Vale win 35%, draw 27%, Chesterfield win 38%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Port Vale 1.3, Chesterfield 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
The chance that both teams score is 56%.
When is Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
The League Two match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).