Premier LeagueMatchday 6
Arsenal 2-1 Leeds: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Emirates Stadium, London
- Referee:
- Paul Tierney
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Match Result: ArsenalWon68%
Arsenal: won 5 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings; won 4 of their last 5 league matches
Other tips
- Offsides – Arsenal: Over 1.5Won65%
Arsenal: 4.0 offsides a match, Leeds's opponents were caught offside 2.4 times on average, league average 1.7; over 1.5 offsides in 5 of their last 5 league matches, Leeds's opponents were caught offside over 1.5 times in 4 of 5 (48% of league matches)
- Shots on Target – Leeds: Under 3.5Lost63%
our numbers for Leeds: 3.1 shots on target against a league average of 3.8
- Fouls – Leeds: Over 10.5Won61%
Arsenal's opponents committed over 10.5 in 5 of 5 (53% of league matches)
For the brave
Correct Score: 2:0Lost13%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS47%48%O2.553%50%|exp. goals 1.8 : 0.8both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Leeds0:4ArsenalW
- Arsenal5:0LeedsW
- Arsenal4:1LeedsW
- Leeds0:1ArsenalW
- Arsenal2:1LeedsW
Arsenal's record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses3.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9over 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 9.5 corners.lost · ended 6
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 43% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.lost · ended 5
RefereeP. Tierney−0.5 yellow cards vs average24 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%O2.52:0coverageleague 62% · H2H 4/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 0.7total 2.7Attack/defence1.8 : 0.8total 2.7
Arsenal : LeedsMost likely scores
Market2-013%1-012%1-110%2-110%3-09%0-0—Attack/defence2-012%1-013%1-111%2-110%3-07%0-07%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-013%2-012%1-01-012%1-013%1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-09%3-07%0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 87%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 80%77% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%73% | 73% |
| Our tip: 1 – Arsenal win | 67%61% · Elo 75% | 61%· Elo 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 53%53% | 53% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47%48% | 48% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 33%39% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%27% | 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 20%23% · Elo 15% | 23%· Elo 15% |
| 2 – Leeds win | 13%16% · Elo 9% | 16%· Elo 9% |
Attack vs defence
Arsenal attack vs Leeds defenceattack1581defence1475+106 pts to the attack
Leeds attack vs Arsenal defenceattack1458defence1690−232 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.553%57%
8.539%45%
9.528%32%
10.518%21%
Each team on its own
Arsenalwe expect 4.7, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Leedswe expect 3.1, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 37%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 57%close to the league averageunder 43%over
We expect 21.7 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.564%58%
20.557%52%
21.549%46%
22.542%37%
Each team on its own
Arsenalwe expect 9.9, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Leedswe expect 11.8, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 61%
Referee: 20.7 fouls per match on average (20 matches in our data)+0.3 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.566%63%
3.544%43%
4.526%23%
5.513%13%
Each team on its own
Arsenalwe expect 2.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 65%
Leedswe expect 1.1, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Arsenal concede only 0.5 goals per game
- Arsenal matches average only 7.7 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Arsenal: 27 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 22 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Arsenal: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Leeds: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | 15 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:5 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Arsenal vs Leeds?
Arsenal 2-1 Leeds (half time 0-0).
Did the Arsenal vs Leeds tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Match Result: Arsenal. The tip won.