Premier LeagueMatchday 7
Brighton vs Crystal Palace: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%58%O2.561%58%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Brighton0:1Crystal PalaceL
- Crystal Palace0:0BrightonD
- Crystal Palace2:1BrightonL
- Brighton1:3Crystal PalaceL
- Brighton4:1Crystal PalaceW
Brighton's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 9.9over 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.8under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.1 : 1.0total 3.1Attack/defence1.9 : 1.1total 3.0
Brighton : Crystal PalaceMost likely scores
Market1-110%2-110%2-010%1-08%3-17%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%2-09%1-09%3-16%1-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-010%2-09%1-01-08%1-09%3-13-17%3-16%1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 83%78% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 79%77% | 77% |
| 1 – Brighton win | 62%55% · Elo 53% | 55%· Elo 53% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%42% | 42% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%42% | 42% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 38%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%36% | 36% |
| X – draw | 21%23% · Elo 25% | 23%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Crystal Palace win | 17%22% · Elo 22% | 22%· Elo 22% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Brighton attack vs Crystal Palace defenceattack1575defence1460+115 pts to the attack
Crystal Palace attack vs Brighton defenceattack1474defence1540−66 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%57%
8.549%45%
9.537%32%
10.526%21%
Each team on its own
Brightonwe expect 5.3, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 60%
Crystal Palacewe expect 3.6, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 19.3 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.539%52%
21.532%46%
22.526%36%
23.521%30%
Each team on its own
Brightonwe expect 9.9, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Crystal Palacewe expect 9.2, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.566%63%
3.544%43%
4.526%23%
5.514%13%
Each team on its own
Brightonwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Crystal Palacewe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Crystal Palace concede 2.1 goals per game
- Crystal Palace matches average only 2.7 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Crystal Palace: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Brighton: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Crystal Palace: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:12 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Brighton are the favourites. Chances: Brighton win 62%, draw 21%, Crystal Palace win 17%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Brighton 2.1, Crystal Palace 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
The Premier League match kicks off 18 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).