Premier LeagueMatchday 6

Sunderland 0-2 Brighton: prediction, tips and result

·

Sunderland
1-21-01-10-23-5
0-2Full time(half time 0-0)
Brighton
3-05-01-13-44-0
Stadium:
Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Referee:
Thomas Bramall

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards – Sunderland (yellow=1, red=2): Over 1.5Lost57%

Sunderland: 2.6 card points a match, Brighton's opponents collected 2.4 card points on average, league average 1.8; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls – Brighton: Over 11.5Lost57%

    our numbers for Brighton: 12.4 fouls against a league average of 10.7; Brighton: over 11.5 fouls in 4 of their last 5 league matches, Sunderland's opponents committed over 11.5 in 3 of 5 (41% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – Sunderland: Under 4.5Won67%

    our numbers for Sunderland: 3.8 shots on target against a league average of 4.4; Sunderland: 3.6 shots on target a match, Brighton's opponents had 3.2 on average, league average 4.4

  • Offsides – Brighton: Under 1.5Won65%

    our numbers for Brighton: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.6

For the brave
Cards – Sunderland (yellow=1, red=2): Over 2.5Lost30%

Sunderland: 2.6 card points a match, Brighton's opponents collected 2.4 card points on average, league average 1.8; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSunderland183431%20%Draw28%24%Brighton208242%56%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%57%O2.551%54%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.6not both scored
H2Hlast 4 meetings
  1. Sunderland0:1BrightonL
  2. Brighton0:0SunderlandD
  3. Brighton2:1SunderlandL
  4. Sunderland2:0BrightonW
Sunderland's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses1.5 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 45% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 12
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.lost · ended 1
RefereeT. Bramall+0.1 yellow cards vs average30 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)68%1X1:2coverageleague 75% · H2H 3/4not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.5total 2.7Attack/defence1.2 : 1.6total 2.8
Sunderland : Brighton
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-29%0-19%0-08%2-18%0-2—1-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-19%0-0—2-17%0-28%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%0-10-19%0-19%0-00-08%0-0—2-12-18%2-17%0-20-2—0-28%1-01-0—1-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals76%78%78%
12 – no draw73%75%75%
Under 3.5 goals71%68%68%
X2 – away team avoid defeat70%71%71%
1X – home team avoid defeat59%54%54%
Both teams to score: yes56%57%57%
Over 2.5 goals51%54%54%
Under 2.5 goals49%46%46%
Both teams to score: no44%43%43%
2 – Brighton win42%46% · Elo 56%46%· Elo 56%
1 – Sunderland win31%29% · Elo 20%29%· Elo 20%
Over 3.5 goals29%32%32%
X – draw28%25% · Elo 24%25%· Elo 24%
Under 1.5 goals24%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Sunderland attack vs Brighton defenceattack1420defence1530−110 pts to the attack
Brighton attack vs Sunderland defenceattack1576defence1441+135 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.554%57%
8.541%45%
9.529%32%
10.519%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sunderlandwe expect 3.8, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Brightonwe expect 4.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 22.1 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.566%58%
20.559%52%
21.552%46%
22.545%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sunderlandwe expect 9.8, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 39%
Brightonwe expect 12.4, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 67%
Referee: 20.9 fouls per match on average (30 matches in our data)+0.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.558%63%
3.536%43%
4.519%23%
5.59%13%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sunderlandwe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Brightonwe expect 1.2, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 35%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Brighton score 2.3 goals per game
  • Brighton: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Sunderland: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Brighton: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Sunderland

Brighton

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Brighton641118:513
17Sunderland61146:124
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Sunderland vs Brighton?

Sunderland 0-2 Brighton (half time 0-0).

Did the Sunderland vs Brighton tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards – Sunderland (yellow=1, red=2): Over 1.5. The tip lost.

See also