Premier LeagueMatchday 7
Everton vs Chelsea: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 6hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%56%O2.558%52%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Everton3:0ChelseaW
- Chelsea2:0EvertonL
- Chelsea1:0EvertonL
- Everton0:0ChelseaD
- Chelsea6:0EvertonL
Everton's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 3.8over 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.7total 3.0Attack/defence1.4 : 1.4total 2.8
Everton : ChelseaMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-29%1-0—2-17%0-17%0-27%0-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-28%1-09%2-18%0-18%0-2—0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-28%1-01-0—1-09%2-12-17%2-18%0-10-17%0-18%0-20-27%0-2—0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 69%62% | 62% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%70% | 70% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%52% | 52% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 55%64% | 64% |
| 2 – Chelsea win | 44%36% · Elo 34% | 36%· Elo 34% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%30% | 30% |
| 1 – Everton win | 30%38% · Elo 37% | 38%· Elo 37% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Everton attack vs Chelsea defenceattack1448defence1496−48 pts to the attack
Chelsea attack vs Everton defenceattack1563defence1525+38 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%57%
8.549%45%
9.537%32%
10.526%21%
Each team on its own
Evertonwe expect 5.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Chelseawe expect 3.8, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 51%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 21.6 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.555%52%
21.548%46%
22.541%36%
23.535%30%
Each team on its own
Evertonwe expect 11.1, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 54%
Chelseawe expect 10.5, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.554%63%
3.532%43%
4.517%23%
5.57%13%
Each team on its own
Evertonwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Chelseawe expect 1.1, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 31%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Chelsea8 matches in a row over 2.5 goalsaway: 4Went on 58%League 57%Model 58%Record 12
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Chelsea concede 2.0 goals per game
- Chelsea matches average 5.4 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Chelsea: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Everton concede a lot late on: 12 of 28 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Everton: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Chelsea: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15:13 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
Chelsea are the favourites. Chances: Everton win 30%, draw 25%, Chelsea win 44%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Everton vs Chelsea?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Everton 1.3, Chelsea 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Everton vs Chelsea?
The Premier League match kicks off 17 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).