Premier LeagueMatchday 6

Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth: prediction, tips and result

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Chelsea
3-24-31-22-20-3
5-1Full time(half time 2-0)
Bournemouth
0-12-22-21-11-2
Stadium:
Stamford Bridge, London
Referee:
Samuel Barrott

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.5Won61%

over 2.5 goals in 5 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 5 (55% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Yellow Cards: Over 3.5Won58%

    4.6 yellow cards a match in the hosts' matches, 4.4 in the visitors', league average 3.8

  • Shots on Target – Bournemouth: Over 3.5Won67%

    Bournemouth: 5.0 shots on target a match, Chelsea's opponents had 6.0 on average, league average 3.8; over 3.5 shots on target in 4 of their last 5 league matches, Chelsea's opponents had over 3.5 in 5 of 5 (53% of league matches)

  • Offsides: Under 3.5Won62%

    2.4 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 3.0 in the visitors', league average 3.4

  • Fouls – Bournemouth: Over 10.5Won61%

    our numbers for Bournemouth: 11.8 fouls against a league average of 10.7

For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won38%

over 3.5 goals in 3 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 2 of the visitors' last 5 (30% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloChelsea203353%38%Draw24%28%Bournemouth203024%34%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%59%O2.561%56%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Chelsea2:2BournemouthD
  2. Bournemouth0:0ChelseaD
  3. Chelsea2:2BournemouthD
  4. Bournemouth0:1ChelseaW
  5. Chelsea2:1BournemouthW
Chelsea's record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 9.5 corners.lost · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 3.8over 3.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 6%.won · ended 4
RefereeS. Barrott0.0 yellow cards vs average33 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%O2.51:1coverageleague 68% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.2total 3.1Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 3.0
Chelsea : Bournemouth
Most likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%1-08%2-08%1-26%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%2-07%1-27%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-110%2-19%1-01-08%1-08%2-02-08%2-07%1-21-26%1-27%0-10-1—0-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals83%79%79%
1X – home team avoid defeat77%70%70%
12 – no draw77%75%75%
Under 3.5 goals62%66%66%
Our tip: Over 2.5 goals61%56%56%
Both teams to score: yes61%59%59%
1 – Chelsea win53%45% · Elo 38%45%· Elo 38%
X2 – away team avoid defeat48%55%55%
Under 2.5 goals39%44%44%
Both teams to score: no39%41%41%
Over 3.5 goals38%34%34%
X – draw24%25% · Elo 28%25%· Elo 28%
2 – Bournemouth win24%30% · Elo 34%30%· Elo 34%
Under 1.5 goals17%21%21%
Attack vs defence
Chelsea attack vs Bournemouth defenceattack1552defence1507+45 pts to the attack
Bournemouth attack vs Chelsea defenceattack1514defence1492+22 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.561%57%
8.548%45%
9.536%32%
10.525%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Chelseawe expect 3.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Bournemouthwe expect 4.7, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 67%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 53%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 20.4 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.554%58%
20.547%52%
21.540%46%
22.533%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Chelseawe expect 10.3, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 45%
Bournemouthwe expect 11.8, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 61%
Referee: 18.5 fouls per match on average (33 matches in our data)−2.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.560%63%
3.538%43%
4.521%23%
5.510%13%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Chelseawe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Bournemouthwe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 46%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Chelsea concede 2.2 goals per game
  • Chelsea matches average 5.2 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Chelsea: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Bournemouth: no win in 7 matches
  • Chelsea: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Bournemouth: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Chelsea

Bournemouth

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Chelsea631215:1310
18Bournemouth60337:133
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Chelsea vs Bournemouth?

Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth (half time 2-0).

Did the Chelsea vs Bournemouth tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5. The tip won.

See also