Premier LeagueMatchday 7
Leeds vs Man United: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%58%O2.559%54%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Man United1:2LeedsW
- Leeds1:1Man UnitedD
- Leeds0:2Man UnitedL
- Man United2:2LeedsD
- Leeds2:4Man UnitedL
Leeds's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 9.9over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.5total 3.1Attack/defence1.3 : 1.5total 2.9
Leeds : Man UnitedMost likely scores
Market1-112%2-19%1-28%0-1—1-07%0-2—2-26%Attack/defence1-112%2-18%1-29%0-18%1-07%0-27%2-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-18%1-21-28%1-29%0-10-1—0-18%1-01-07%1-07%0-20-2—0-27%2-22-26%2-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%59% | 59% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64%68% | 68% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%58% | 58% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 61%67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41%46% | 46% |
| 1 – Leeds win | 39%34% · Elo 29% | 34%· Elo 29% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36%32% | 32% |
| 2 – Man United win | 35%41% · Elo 43% | 41%· Elo 43% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Leeds attack vs Man United defenceattack1458defence1528−70 pts to the attack
Man United attack vs Leeds defenceattack1571defence1477+94 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.560%57%
8.547%45%
9.535%32%
10.524%21%
Each team on its own
Leedswe expect 4.1, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Man Unitedwe expect 4.5, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 63%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 21.2 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.553%52%
21.546%46%
22.539%36%
23.532%30%
Each team on its own
Leedswe expect 10.3, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 45%
Man Unitedwe expect 10.9, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.569%63%
3.548%43%
4.529%23%
5.516%13%
Each team on its own
Leedswe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Man Unitedwe expect 1.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9:9 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Leeds vs Man United?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Leeds win 39%, draw 26%, Man United win 35%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Leeds vs Man United?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Leeds 1.6, Man United 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Man United?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Leeds vs Man United?
The Premier League match kicks off 18 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).