HJK vs Gnistan: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%58%O2.567%59%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Gnistan1:1HJKD
- HJK2:3GnistanL
- Gnistan0:3HJKW
- Gnistan2:2HJKD
- HJK2:3GnistanL
HJK's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.4 : 1.1total 3.5Attack/defence1.9 : 1.2total 3.0
HJK : GnistanMost likely scores
Market1-19%2-110%2-09%1-0—3-18%3-07%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%2-09%1-09%3-16%3-0—1-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%1-01-0—1-09%3-13-18%3-16%3-03-07%3-0—1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87%81% | 81% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 84%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 81%77% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67%59% | 59% |
| 1 – HJK win | 65%54% · Elo 53% | 54%· Elo 53% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%58% | 58% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54%64% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46%36% | 36% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%42% | 42% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 35%46% | 46% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33%42% | 42% |
| X – draw | 19%23% · Elo 25% | 23%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Gnistan win | 16%23% · Elo 23% | 23%· Elo 23% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
HJK attack vs Gnistan defenceattack1652defence1475+177 pts to the attack
Gnistan attack vs HJK defenceattack1525defence1531−6 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.561%61%
8.548%48%
9.536%38%
10.525%27%
Each team on its own
HJKwe expect 4.8, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 51%
Gnistanwe expect 3.7, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 19.9 in this match, 20.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.550%52%
20.543%44%
21.536%39%
22.529%32%
Each team on its own
HJKwe expect 9.6, league average 10.0 · chance of over 10.5: 37%
Gnistanwe expect 10.2, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 56%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.570%59%
3.549%37%
4.530%23%
5.516%10%
Each team on its own
HJKwe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Gnistanwe expect 1.8, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
Championship Round
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | HJK | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 49:32 | 48 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 40:33 | 42 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win HJK vs Gnistan?
HJK are the favourites. Chances: HJK win 65%, draw 19%, Gnistan win 16%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in HJK vs Gnistan?
Expected goals: 3.5 (HJK 2.4, Gnistan 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in HJK vs Gnistan?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is HJK vs Gnistan?
The Veikkausliiga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).
See also
- Veikkausliiga: table, fixtures and results
- Veikkausliiga stats: over/under, BTTS, corners and cards
- All matches that day
- The clubs' other match this season: Gnistan 0-3 HJK ()
- The clubs' other match this season: HJK 2-3 Gnistan ()
- The clubs' other match this season: Gnistan 1-1 HJK ()
- HJK: Elo rating
- Gnistan: Elo rating