Jaro vs Mariehamn: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%50%O2.552%46%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Mariehamn2:0JaroL
- Jaro3:0MariehamnW
- Jaro2:3MariehamnL
- Jaro1:1MariehamnD
- Mariehamn0:2JaroW
Jaro's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 9.9over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.6over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.2total 2.7Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.5
Jaro : MariehamnMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-09%2-19%0-0—0-1—2-07%1-27%Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-19%0-09%0-18%2-08%1-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-09%1-011%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-0—0-09%0-10-1—0-18%2-02-07%2-08%1-21-27%1-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%71% | 71% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 70%72% | 72% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%76% | 76% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 57%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56%50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52%46% | 46% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: no | 44%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Jaro win | 43%45% · Elo 42% | 45%· Elo 42% |
| 2 – Mariehamn win | 30%28% · Elo 31% | 28%· Elo 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%24% | 24% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%29% | 29% |
Attack vs defence
Jaro attack vs Mariehamn defenceattack1406defence1382+24 pts to the attack
Mariehamn attack vs Jaro defenceattack1385defence1426−41 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%61%
8.544%48%
9.532%38%
10.522%27%
Each team on its own
Jarowe expect 4.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
Mariehamnwe expect 3.8, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 21.5 in this match, 20.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.562%52%
20.555%44%
21.548%39%
22.541%32%
Each team on its own
Jarowe expect 11.6, league average 10.0 · chance of over 10.5: 59%
Mariehamnwe expect 10.1, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 54%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.554%59%
3.532%37%
4.516%23%
5.57%10%
Each team on its own
Jarowe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Mariehamnwe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Jaro6 matches in a row under 2.5 goalsat home: 2Went on 56%League 57%Model 48%Record 16
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Jaro score only 0.6 goals per game
- Mariehamn: 14 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 9 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Jaro: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Mariehamn: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Relegation Round
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jaro | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 21:48 | 20 |
| 6 | Mariehamn | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21:48 | 18 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Jaro are the favourites. Chances: Jaro win 43%, draw 27%, Mariehamn win 30%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Jaro 1.5, Mariehamn 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Jaro vs Mariehamn?
The chance that both teams score is 56%.
When is Jaro vs Mariehamn?
The Veikkausliiga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 12:00 (UK time).