Ligue 1Matchday 6

Brest 5-1 Angers: prediction, tips and result

·

Brest
2-22-22-10-11-2
5-1Full time(half time 4-0)
Angers
2-00-01-23-10-2
Stadium:
Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest
Referee:
Eric Wattellier

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Yellow Cards: Under 3.5Won63%

our numbers: 3.1 yellow cards against a league average of 3.6; referee Eric Wattellier averages 2.9 yellow cards a match, league average 3.6

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Brest: Over 4.5Won71%

    our numbers for Brest: 6.1 shots on target against a league average of 4.7; Brest: over 4.5 shots on target in 4 of their last 5 league matches, Angers's opponents had over 4.5 in 5 of 5 (48% of league matches)

  • Fouls: Under 21.5Won63%

    referee Eric Wattellier averages 17.2 fouls a match, league average 21.5; our numbers: 20.0 fouls against a league average of 21.5

For the brave
Yellow Cards: Under 2.5Won41%

referee Eric Wattellier averages 2.9 yellow cards a match, league average 3.6; our numbers: 3.1 yellow cards against a league average of 3.6

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloBrest177352%47%Draw25%27%Angers169623%26%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%52%O2.559%50%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Brest1:1AngersD
  2. Angers0:2BrestW
  3. Brest2:0AngersW
  4. Angers2:0BrestL
  5. Brest4:0AngersW
Brest's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.6over 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.lost · ended 9
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.1league 3.6under 3.5: 63%Expected yellow cards: 3.1 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.won · ended 2
RefereeE. Wattellier−0.8 yellow cards vs average23 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)69%O2.51:1coverageleague 64% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.2total 3.1Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Brest : Angers
Most likely scores
Market1-111%1-08%2-110%2-08%0-0—0-1—1-26%Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-09%0-07%0-17%1-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-08%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-09%0-00-0—0-07%0-10-1—0-17%1-21-26%1-2—
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals82%75%75%
1X – home team avoid defeat77%76%76%
12 – no draw75%75%75%
Under 3.5 goals64%72%72%
Both teams to score: yes60%52%52%
Over 2.5 goals59%50%50%
1 – Brest win52%50% · Elo 47%50%· Elo 47%
X2 – away team avoid defeat48%50%50%
Under 2.5 goals41%50%50%
Both teams to score: no40%48%48%
Over 3.5 goals36%28%28%
X – draw25%26% · Elo 27%26%· Elo 27%
2 – Angers win23%24% · Elo 26%24%· Elo 26%
Under 1.5 goals18%25%25%
Attack vs defence
Brest attack vs Angers defenceattack1498defence1459+39 pts to the attack
Angers attack vs Brest defenceattack1374defence1458−84 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 9.4 in this match, 8.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.571%59%
8.558%48%
9.546%37%
10.534%28%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Brestwe expect 6.1, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 71%
Angerswe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 20.1 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.544%53%
21.537%47%
22.531%42%
23.525%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Brestwe expect 12.0, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 63%
Angerswe expect 10.4, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 47%
Referee: 17.2 fouls per match on average (22 matches in our data)−4.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.570%63%
3.549%43%
4.530%26%
5.517%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Brestwe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Angerswe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 55%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Brest matches average only 2.5 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Brest: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Angers: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Brest

Angers

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Brest622212:98
12Angers62137:107
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Brest vs Angers?

Brest 5-1 Angers (half time 4-0).

Did the Brest vs Angers tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Yellow Cards: Under 3.5. The tip won.

See also