Ligue 1Matchday 6

Lorient 1-0 Paris FC: prediction, tips and result

·

Lorient
0-01-21-02-21-2
1-0Full time(half time 0-0)
Paris FC
2-10-03-23-00-0
Stadium:
Stade Yves Allainmat-Le Moustoir, Lorient
Referee:
Jerome Brisard

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Under 9.5Lost55%

under 9.5 corners in 4 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 5 (51% of league matches); 7.6 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 6.6 in the visitors', league average 9.6

Other tips

  • Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Lost60%

    2.8 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 2.8 in the visitors', league average 4.1; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

  • Shots on Target – Lorient: Under 4.5Lost67%

    Lorient: under 4.5 shots on target in 5 of their last 5 league matches, Paris FC's opponents had under 4.5 in 5 of 5 (52% of league matches); 2.6 shots on target a match, Paris FC's opponents had 2.2 on average, league average 4.7

  • Fouls – Lorient: Under 9.5Won64%

    our numbers for Lorient: 8.6 fouls against a league average of 10.8; Lorient: under 9.5 fouls in 4 of their last 5 league matches, Paris FC's opponents committed under 9.5 in 3 of 5 (39% of league matches)

  • Offsides: Under 3.5Won63%

    under 3.5 offsides in 5 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 5 (57% of league matches); 2.4 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 2.6 in the visitors', league average 3.4

For the brave
Corners: Under 8.5Lost43%

under 8.5 corners in 4 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 5 (40% of league matches); 7.6 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 6.6 in the visitors', league average 9.6

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloLorient177327%37%Draw28%28%Paris FC179945%35%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%51%O2.549%45%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.2not both scored
H2Hlast 2 meetings
  1. Lorient1:1Paris FCD
  2. Paris FC2:0LorientL
Lorient's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
too few to read anything into
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.6under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 12
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.6under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 27%.lost · ended 6
RefereeJ. Brisard+0.5 yellow cards vs average20 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)65%BTTS yes0:1coverageleague 60% · H2H 1/2not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.5total 2.6Attack/defence1.3 : 1.2total 2.5
Lorient : Paris FC
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-0—0-110%1-29%0-08%2-1—0-28%Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-19%1-27%0-09%2-19%0-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-0—1-011%0-10-110%0-19%1-21-29%1-27%0-00-08%0-09%2-12-1—2-19%0-20-28%0-2—
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals75%71%71%
X2 – away team avoid defeat73%60%60%
Under 3.5 goals73%76%76%
12 – no draw72%72%72%
1X – home team avoid defeat55%68%68%
Both teams to score: yes53%51%51%
Under 2.5 goals51%55%55%
Over 2.5 goals49%45%45%
Both teams to score: no47%49%49%
2 – Paris FC win45%32% · Elo 35%32%· Elo 35%
X – draw28%28% · Elo 28%28%· Elo 28%
1 – Lorient win27%40% · Elo 37%40%· Elo 37%
Over 3.5 goals27%24%24%
Under 1.5 goals25%29%29%
Attack vs defence
Lorient attack vs Paris FC defenceattack1445defence1513−68 pts to the attack
Paris FC attack vs Lorient defenceattack1465defence1492−27 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.554%59%
8.541%48%
9.529%37%
10.520%28%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lorientwe expect 3.8, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 33%
Paris FCwe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 20.2 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.546%53%
21.539%47%
22.532%42%
23.526%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lorientwe expect 8.6, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 26%
Paris FCwe expect 10.9, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Referee: 22.4 fouls per match on average (20 matches in our data)+0.9 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.559%63%
3.537%43%
4.520%26%
5.510%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lorientwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Paris FCwe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 46%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Paris FC: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Lorient: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Paris FC: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Lorient

Paris FC

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Paris FC63218:411
8Lorient62226:68
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Lorient vs Paris FC?

Lorient 1-0 Paris FC (half time 0-0).

Did the Lorient vs Paris FC tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Under 9.5. The tip lost.

See also