Ligue 1Matchday 7
Troyes vs Lens: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%56%O2.561%55%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.7
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Troyes1:1LensD
- Lens1:0TroyesL
- Troyes1:3LensL
- Lens4:0TroyesL
- Troyes1:1LensD
Troyes's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.6over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.9total 3.1Attack/defence1.2 : 1.7total 2.9
Troyes : LensMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-210%0-17%0-28%2-16%1-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-210%0-19%0-28%2-17%1-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-21-210%1-210%0-10-17%0-19%0-20-28%0-28%2-12-16%2-17%1-01-0—1-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%78% | 78% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 76%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%55% | 55% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%68% | 68% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%56% | 56% |
| 2 – Lens win | 52%50% · Elo 60% | 50%· Elo 60% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 48%50% | 50% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%32% | 32% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%44% | 44% |
| 1 – Troyes win | 24%25% · Elo 17% | 25%· Elo 17% |
| X – draw | 24%25% · Elo 23% | 25%· Elo 23% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Troyes attack vs Lens defenceattack1407defence1556−149 pts to the attack
Lens attack vs Troyes defenceattack1598defence1414+184 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 9.1 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.567%60%
8.555%49%
9.542%38%
10.531%28%
Each team on its own
Troyeswe expect 4.4, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 45%
Lenswe expect 4.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 69%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 22.6 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.562%53%
21.555%47%
22.548%41%
23.541%36%
Each team on its own
Troyeswe expect 10.9, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Lenswe expect 11.8, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 62%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.569%63%
3.547%43%
4.529%26%
5.515%14%
Each team on its own
Troyeswe expect 1.9, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Lenswe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lens matches average 12.4 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Troyes: 4 defeats in a row
- Troyes: newly promoted
- Troyes: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Lens: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11:10 | 7 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Troyes vs Lens?
Lens are the favourites. Chances: Troyes win 24%, draw 24%, Lens win 52%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Troyes vs Lens?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Troyes 1.2, Lens 1.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Troyes vs Lens?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Troyes vs Lens?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 17 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).