BundesligaMatchday 7
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS68%66%O2.578%69%|exp. goals 1.3 : 2.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Freiburg2:3Bayern MunichL
- Bayern Munich6:2FreiburgL
- Freiburg1:2Bayern MunichL
- Bayern Munich2:0FreiburgL
- Freiburg2:2Bayern MunichD
Freiburg's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses4.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.9over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 2.8total 4.1Attack/defence1.3 : 2.2total 3.5
Freiburg : Bayern MunichMost likely scores
Market1-28%1-16%1-38%0-27%2-2—0-1—0-36%Attack/defence1-29%1-19%1-37%0-27%2-26%0-16%0-3—
MarketAttack/defence1-21-28%1-29%1-11-16%1-19%1-31-38%1-37%0-20-27%0-27%2-22-2—2-26%0-10-1—0-16%0-30-36%0-3—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 92%87% | 87% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 86%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 84%79% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78%69% | 69% |
| 2 – Bayern Munich win | 70%57% · Elo 65% | 57%· Elo 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68%66% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59%47% | 47% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 41%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 32%34% | 34% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 30%43% | 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 16%21% · Elo 21% | 21%· Elo 21% |
| 1 – Freiburg win | 14%22% · Elo 14% | 22%· Elo 14% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8%13% | 13% |
Attack vs defence
Freiburg attack vs Bayern Munich defenceattack1491defence1645−154 pts to the attack
Bayern Munich attack vs Freiburg defenceattack1777defence1528+249 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.564%61%
9.551%48%
10.540%36%
11.529%28%
Each team on its own
Freiburgwe expect 5.1, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 40%
Bayern Munichwe expect 4.8, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 51%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 18.9 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.551%59%
19.543%53%
20.536%46%
21.529%39%
Each team on its own
Freiburgwe expect 8.9, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 40%
Bayern Munichwe expect 9.9, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.566%66%
3.545%46%
4.527%30%
5.514%16%
Each team on its own
Freiburgwe expect 1.5, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Bayern Munichwe expect 1.9, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Bayern Munich score 3.3 goals per game
- Freiburg score 2.3 goals per game
- Freiburg: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Bayern Munich: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Freiburg matches average only 7.6 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Bayern Munich matches average 11.9 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Freiburg: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Bayern Munich: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16:4 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
Bayern Munich are the favourites. Chances: Freiburg win 14%, draw 16%, Bayern Munich win 70%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
Expected goals: 4.1 (Freiburg 1.3, Bayern Munich 2.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 78%. Most likely score: 1-2.
Will both teams score in Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
The chance that both teams score is 68%.
When is Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 25 October 2026, 16:30 (UK time).