BundesligaMatchday 6
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS68%66%O2.584%74%|exp. goals 2.6 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- RB Leipzig1:5Bayern MunichW
- Bayern Munich6:0RB LeipzigW
- RB Leipzig3:3Bayern MunichD
- Bayern Munich5:1RB LeipzigW
- Bayern Munich2:1RB LeipzigW
Bayern Munich's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses5.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 9.9over 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market3.5 : 1.2total 4.7Attack/defence2.6 : 1.3total 3.9
Bayern Munich : RB LeipzigMost likely scores
Market2-17%3-18%2-06%1-1—4-17%3-07%2-2—Attack/defence2-19%3-18%2-07%1-17%4-1—3-06%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence2-12-17%2-19%3-13-18%3-18%2-02-06%2-07%1-11-1—1-17%4-14-17%4-1—3-03-07%3-06%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 95%90% | 90% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 90%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 88%82% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84%74% | 74% |
| 1 – Bayern Munich win | 79%66% · Elo 76% | 66%· Elo 76% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 68%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68%66% | 66% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 32%46% | 46% |
| Both teams to score: no | 32%34% | 34% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 20%34% | 34% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 16%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 11%18% · Elo 15% | 18%· Elo 15% |
| 2 – RB Leipzig win | 9%16% · Elo 9% | 16%· Elo 9% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5%10% | 10% |
Attack vs defence
Bayern Munich attack vs RB Leipzig defenceattack1777defence1563+214 pts to the attack
RB Leipzig attack vs Bayern Munich defenceattack1585defence1645−60 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 10.5 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.570%61%
9.559%48%
10.547%36%
11.536%28%
Each team on its own
Bayern Munichwe expect 6.8, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 65%
RB Leipzigwe expect 4.4, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 17.6 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.541%59%
19.533%53%
20.527%46%
21.521%39%
Each team on its own
Bayern Munichwe expect 8.9, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 40%
RB Leipzigwe expect 8.4, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 4.0 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.575%66%
3.556%46%
4.537%30%
5.522%16%
Each team on its own
Bayern Munichwe expect 2.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 76%
RB Leipzigwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
Teams
- Bayern Munich19 matches in a row over 2.5 goals at homeoverall: 3Went on 66%League 78%Model 84%Record 26
- Bayern Munich20 matches unbeatenat home: 9Went on 86%League 71%Model 90%Record 53
Players
- Harry KaneBayern Munich3 matches with a goal or assist3 goals, 2 assistsWent on 33%Season 60%
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Bayern Munich score 3.3 goals per game
- RB Leipzig score 2.5 goals per game
- RB Leipzig matches average only 2.4 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- RB Leipzig: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Bayern Munich: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Bayern Munich matches average 11.9 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Bayern Munich: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- RB Leipzig: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16:4 | 11 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:5 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Bayern Munich are the favourites. Chances: Bayern Munich win 79%, draw 11%, RB Leipzig win 9%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Expected goals: 4.7 (Bayern Munich 3.5, RB Leipzig 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 84%. Most likely score: 3-1.
Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
The chance that both teams score is 68%.
When is Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 17:30 (UK time).