BundesligaMatchday 6
Leverkusen vs Freiburg: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%62%O2.565%64%|exp. goals 2.1 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Freiburg3:3LeverkusenD
- Leverkusen2:0FreiburgW
- Freiburg2:2LeverkusenD
- Leverkusen5:1FreiburgW
- Freiburg2:3LeverkusenW
Leverkusen's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses4.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.1 : 1.2total 3.3Attack/defence2.1 : 1.2total 3.3
Leverkusen : FreiburgMost likely scores
Market1-110%2-110%2-08%1-07%3-17%2-2—Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-08%1-07%3-17%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-08%1-01-07%1-07%3-13-17%3-17%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85%84% | 84% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%79% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63%62% | 62% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57%58% | 58% |
| 1 – Leverkusen win | 56%57% · Elo 50% | 57%· Elo 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 44%43% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43%42% | 42% |
| Both teams to score: no | 37%38% | 38% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35%36% | 36% |
| X – draw | 22%21% · Elo 27% | 21%· Elo 27% |
| 2 – Freiburg win | 22%21% · Elo 24% | 21%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15%16% | 16% |
Attack vs defence
Leverkusen attack vs Freiburg defenceattack1623defence1528+95 pts to the attack
Freiburg attack vs Leverkusen defenceattack1491defence1570−79 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.563%61%
9.551%48%
10.539%36%
11.529%28%
Each team on its own
Leverkusenwe expect 5.5, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
Freiburgwe expect 4.4, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 20.5 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.563%59%
19.555%53%
20.548%46%
21.541%39%
Each team on its own
Leverkusenwe expect 10.7, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 61%
Freiburgwe expect 9.9, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.555%66%
3.533%46%
4.517%30%
5.58%16%
Each team on its own
Leverkusenwe expect 1.6, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Freiburgwe expect 1.2, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Patrik SchickLeverkusen5 matches with a goal5 goalsWent on 29%Season 100%
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Leverkusen score 2.3 goals per game
- Freiburg score 2.3 goals per game
- Leverkusen: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Freiburg: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Freiburg matches average only 7.6 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Leverkusen: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Freiburg: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 13 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:8 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Leverkusen vs Freiburg?
Leverkusen are the favourites. Chances: Leverkusen win 56%, draw 22%, Freiburg win 22%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Leverkusen vs Freiburg?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Leverkusen 2.1, Freiburg 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Leverkusen vs Freiburg?
The chance that both teams score is 63%.
When is Leverkusen vs Freiburg?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 14:30 (UK time).