BundesligaMatchday 5
Mainz 3-4 Leverkusen: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Mewa Arena, Mainz
- Referee:
- Max Burda
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Yellow Cards: Over 3.5Won57%
referee Max Burda averages 5.5 yellow cards a match, league average 3.6
Other tips
- Offsides: Under 3.5Won64%
our numbers: 3.0 offsides against a league average of 3.6
For the brave
Yellow Cards: Over 4.5Lost37%
referee Max Burda averages 5.5 yellow cards a match, league average 3.6
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%63%O2.561%61%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.6both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Leverkusen1:1MainzD
- Mainz3:4LeverkusenL
- Mainz2:2LeverkusenD
- Leverkusen1:0MainzL
- Leverkusen2:1MainzL
Mainz's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 9.5 corners.lost · ended 7
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 3.6over 3.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 12%.won · ended 4
RefereeM. Burda+0.9 yellow cards vs average15 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)66%1X1:2coverageleague 73% · H2H 3/5not covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.7total 3.1Attack/defence1.5 : 1.6total 3.2
Mainz : LeverkusenMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-29%2-17%0-17%2-26%1-0—Attack/defence1-111%1-29%2-18%0-17%2-27%1-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-17%2-18%0-10-17%0-17%2-22-26%2-27%1-01-0—1-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%76% | 76% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 70%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63%63% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%61% | 61% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%61% | 61% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 57%59% | 59% |
| 2 – Leverkusen win | 44%41% · Elo 47% | 41%· Elo 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%39% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%39% | 39% |
| Both teams to score: no | 37%37% | 37% |
| 1 – Mainz win | 31%35% · Elo 26% | 35%· Elo 26% |
| X – draw | 26%24% · Elo 28% | 24%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%18% | 18% |
Attack vs defence
Mainz attack vs Leverkusen defenceattack1496defence1576−80 pts to the attack
Leverkusen attack vs Mainz defenceattack1612defence1520+92 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 9.9 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.565%60%
9.553%48%
10.541%36%
11.530%27%
Each team on its own
Mainzwe expect 5.7, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 50%
Leverkusenwe expect 4.5, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 50%
We expect 19.7 in this match, 20.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.557%59%
19.550%53%
20.542%46%
21.535%39%
Each team on its own
Mainzwe expect 10.0, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 53%
Leverkusenwe expect 9.3, league average 10.0 · chance of over 10.5: 34%
Referee: 27.5 fouls per match on average (2 matches in our data)+3.0 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.558%66%
3.536%46%
4.520%30%
5.59%16%
Each team on its own
Mainzwe expect 1.6, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Leverkusenwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:8 | 10 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:10 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Mainz vs Leverkusen?
Mainz 3-4 Leverkusen (half time 2-2).
Did the Mainz vs Leverkusen tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Yellow Cards: Over 3.5. The tip won.