BundesligaMatchday 6
Schalke 04 vs Mainz: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%58%O2.560%54%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Mainz2:3Schalke 04W
- Schalke 041:0MainzW
- Schalke 040:0MainzD
- Mainz2:2Schalke 04D
- Mainz0:0Schalke 04D
Schalke 04's record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.6under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.7total 3.1Attack/defence1.4 : 1.5total 2.9
Schalke 04 : MainzMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-29%2-18%0-17%1-0—0-0—2-26%Attack/defence1-112%1-29%2-18%0-18%1-08%0-06%2-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-18%2-18%0-10-17%0-18%1-01-0—1-08%0-00-0—0-06%2-22-26%2-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 68%64% | 64% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63%68% | 68% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%54% | 54% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 58%62% | 62% |
| 2 – Mainz win | 42%39% · Elo 58% | 39%· Elo 58% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40%46% | 46% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%32% | 32% |
| 1 – Schalke 04 win | 32%36% · Elo 18% | 36%· Elo 18% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 24% | 26%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Schalke 04 attack vs Mainz defenceattack1380defence1509−129 pts to the attack
Mainz attack vs Schalke 04 defenceattack1503defence1481+22 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 9.9 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.564%61%
9.552%48%
10.540%36%
11.530%28%
Each team on its own
Schalke 04we expect 4.8, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 36%
Mainzwe expect 5.1, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 19.1 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.552%59%
19.544%53%
20.537%46%
21.530%39%
Each team on its own
Schalke 04we expect 9.1, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 42%
Mainzwe expect 9.9, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%66%
3.546%46%
4.528%30%
5.515%16%
Each team on its own
Schalke 04we expect 1.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Mainzwe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Schalke 04: newly promoted
- Schalke 04: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Mainz: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:10 | 7 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Schalke 04 win 32%, draw 26%, Mainz win 42%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Schalke 04 1.4, Mainz 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 14:30 (UK time).