Premier DivisionMatchday 34

Drogheda vs Derry City: prediction, tips and stats

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Drogheda
2-32-02-11-21-3
1.1:1.3Pre-match
Derry City
1-02-21-03-33-5

Our tips

Tip in 2d 11h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloDrogheda131330%30%Draw27%30%Derry City141643%41%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%49%O2.551%43%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Derry City2:0DroghedaL
  2. Drogheda1:0Derry CityW
  3. Derry City2:2DroghedaD
  4. Drogheda1:1Derry CityD
  5. Derry City3:0DroghedaL
Drogheda's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.2under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 4.3under 4.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeno referee data

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.5total 2.7Attack/defence1.1 : 1.3total 2.4
Drogheda : Derry City
Most likely scores
Market1-113%0-19%1-0—0-08%1-29%0-28%Attack/defence1-113%0-111%1-010%0-09%1-29%0-28%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-19%0-111%1-01-0—1-010%0-00-08%0-09%1-21-29%1-29%0-20-28%0-28%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals76%69%69%
12 – no draw73%72%72%
Under 3.5 goals72%78%78%
X2 – away team avoid defeat70%69%69%
1X – home team avoid defeat57%59%59%
Both teams to score: yes55%49%49%
Over 2.5 goals51%43%43%
Under 2.5 goals49%57%57%
Both teams to score: no45%51%51%
2 – Derry City win43%41% · Elo 41%41%· Elo 41%
1 – Drogheda win30%31% · Elo 30%31%· Elo 30%
Over 3.5 goals28%22%22%
X – draw27%28% · Elo 30%28%· Elo 30%
Under 1.5 goals24%31%31%
Attack vs defence
Drogheda attack vs Derry City defenceattack1412defence1578−166 pts to the attack
Derry City attack vs Drogheda defenceattack1523defence1465+58 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.555%60%
8.542%46%
9.530%30%
10.520%22%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Droghedawe expect 4.3, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Derry Citywe expect 3.6, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 21.2 in this match, 21.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.553%53%
21.546%49%
22.539%44%
23.532%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Droghedawe expect 9.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Derry Citywe expect 11.3, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 56%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 65%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 35%over
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.585%78%
2.565%49%
3.544%34%
4.526%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Droghedawe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Derry Citywe expect 1.9, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 56%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Drogheda

Derry City

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Derry City32914945:4241
9Drogheda338101539:5434
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Drogheda vs Derry City?

Derry City are the favourites. Chances: Drogheda win 30%, draw 27%, Derry City win 43%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.

How many goals will there be in Drogheda vs Derry City?

Expected goals: 2.7 (Drogheda 1.2, Derry City 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Will both teams score in Drogheda vs Derry City?

The chance that both teams score is 55%.

When is Drogheda vs Derry City?

The Premier Division match kicks off 16 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).

See also