Serie AMatchday 6

Atalanta 3-1 Venezia: prediction, tips and result

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Atalanta
2-11-01-21-20-2
3-1Full time(half time 3-1)
Venezia
0-22-42-30-20-2
Stadium:
New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Referee:
Paride Tremolada

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.5Won63%

our numbers: 3.3 goals in total in this match, league average 2.5

Other tips

  • Match Result: AtalantaWon62%

    Atalanta: won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

  • Fouls: Under 22.5Won66%

    under 22.5 fouls in 5 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 5 (48% of league matches); our numbers: 20.5 fouls against a league average of 23.1

  • Shots on Target – Venezia: Over 3.5Won61%

    Venezia: 4.2 shots on target a match, Atalanta's opponents had 6.6 on average, league average 3.7; our numbers for Venezia: 4.3 shots on target against a league average of 3.7

  • Offsides – Venezia: Over 1.5Won59%

    Venezia: 2.0 offsides a match, Atalanta's opponents were caught offside 3.0 times on average, league average 1.7; over 1.5 offsides in 3 of their last 5 league matches, Atalanta's opponents were caught offside over 1.5 times in 4 of 5 (49% of league matches)

For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won41%

our numbers: 3.3 goals in total in this match, league average 2.5

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloAtalanta191264%67%Draw19%21%Venezia165116%12%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%54%O2.564%58%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.0both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Atalanta0:0VeneziaD
  2. Venezia0:2AtalantaW
  3. Venezia1:3AtalantaW
  4. Atalanta4:0VeneziaW
  5. Venezia0:1AtalantaW
Atalanta's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.4league 8.9under 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 8.4 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 8.5 corners.lost · ended 15
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.6over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.lost · ended 2
RefereeP. Tremolada+2.9 yellow cards vs average3 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%O2.51:1coverageleague 60% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.0total 3.2Attack/defence2.0 : 1.0total 3.0
Atalanta : Venezia
Most likely scores
Market2-09%2-110%1-19%1-08%3-17%3-0—Attack/defence2-010%2-110%1-110%1-010%3-17%3-07%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-09%2-010%2-12-110%2-110%1-11-19%1-110%1-01-08%1-010%3-13-17%3-17%3-03-0—3-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals85%80%80%
1X – home team avoid defeat83%83%83%
12 – no draw80%79%79%
1 – Atalanta win64%62% · Elo 67%62%· Elo 67%
Our tip: Over 2.5 goals64%58%58%
Under 3.5 goals58%64%64%
Both teams to score: yes58%54%54%
Over 3.5 goals42%36%36%
Both teams to score: no42%46%46%
Under 2.5 goals36%42%42%
X2 – away team avoid defeat35%38%38%
X – draw19%21% · Elo 21%21%· Elo 21%
2 – Venezia win16%17% · Elo 12%17%· Elo 12%
Under 1.5 goals15%20%20%
Attack vs defence
Atalanta attack vs Venezia defenceattack1572defence1393+179 pts to the attack
Venezia attack vs Atalanta defenceattack1379defence1518−139 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 9.0 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.566%57%
8.553%41%
9.541%28%
10.530%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Atalantawe expect 5.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 58%
Veneziawe expect 4.3, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 73%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 27%
We expect 20.5 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.534%52%
23.527%45%
24.522%37%
25.517%33%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Atalantawe expect 10.3, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 34%
Veneziawe expect 9.8, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 29%
Referee: 23.7 fouls per match on average (3 matches in our data)+0.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.573%62%
3.553%40%
4.534%28%
5.519%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Atalantawe expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Veneziawe expect 2.0, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 59%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Atalanta matches average only 1.8 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Venezia: 5 defeats in a row
  • Atalanta: only 11 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Venezia: newly promoted
  • Atalanta: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Venezia: 23 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Atalanta

Venezia

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Atalanta63038:89
20Venezia60065:160
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Atalanta vs Venezia?

Atalanta 3-1 Venezia (half time 3-1).

Did the Atalanta vs Venezia tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5. The tip won.

See also