Serie AMatchday 6

Lazio 3-1 Monza: prediction, tips and result

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Lazio
1-01-02-12-22-0
3-1Full time(half time 2-0)
Monza
2-12-31-12-31-4
Stadium:
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee:
Guiseppe Collu

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 3.5Won59%

over 3.5 card points in 5 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 5 (54% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Both Teams To Score: YesWon55%

    goals at both ends in 2 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 5 (47% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Monza: Over 1.5Won65%

    Monza: 4.0 offsides a match, league average 1.7; our numbers for Monza: 2.3 offsides against a league average of 1.7

  • Shots on Target – Monza: Over 3.5Won67%

    Monza: 5.4 shots on target a match, Lazio's opponents had 5.0 on average, league average 3.6; our numbers for Monza: 4.7 shots on target against a league average of 3.6

  • Fouls: Under 23.5Won65%

    referee Guiseppe Collu averages 21.9 fouls a match, league average 23.2; our numbers: 21.7 fouls against a league average of 23.2

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost12%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloLazio188956%61%Draw24%23%Monza168320%15%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%52%O2.555%51%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.0both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Lazio5:1MonzaW
  2. Monza0:1LazioW
  3. Monza2:2LazioD
  4. Lazio1:1MonzaD
  5. Monza0:2LazioW
Lazio's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.7league 8.8over 8.5: 51%Expected corners: 8.7 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.won · ended 13
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.6over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.won · ended 4
RefereeG. Collu+0.6 yellow cards vs average16 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%O2.51:1coverageleague 59% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 1.0total 2.8Attack/defence1.8 : 1.0total 2.7
Lazio : Monza
Most likely scores
Market1-111%1-010%2-110%2-010%0-06%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-010%0-07%0-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-010%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-010%2-010%0-00-06%0-07%0-10-1—0-16%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat80%79%79%
Over 1.5 goals79%76%76%
12 – no draw76%76%76%
Under 3.5 goals67%71%71%
1 – Lazio win56%55% · Elo 61%55%· Elo 61%
Over 2.5 goals55%51%51%
Both teams to score: yes55%52%52%
Under 2.5 goals45%49%49%
Both teams to score: no45%48%48%
X2 – away team avoid defeat44%45%45%
Over 3.5 goals33%29%29%
X – draw24%24% · Elo 23%24%· Elo 23%
Under 1.5 goals21%24%24%
2 – Monza win20%21% · Elo 15%21%· Elo 15%
Attack vs defence
Lazio attack vs Monza defenceattack1499defence1406+93 pts to the attack
Monza attack vs Lazio defenceattack1402defence1537−135 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 9.0 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.567%57%
8.554%40%
9.541%27%
10.530%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Laziowe expect 4.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Monzawe expect 4.7, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 67%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 21.7 in this match, 23.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.542%52%
23.535%46%
24.529%38%
25.524%34%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Laziowe expect 10.9, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 41%
Monzawe expect 12.0, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 53%
Referee: 21.9 fouls per match on average (16 matches in our data)−2.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.567%62%
3.546%41%
4.528%28%
5.515%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Laziowe expect 1.2, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Monzawe expect 2.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 65%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Lazio matches average 5.1 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Lazio: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Monza: newly promoted
  • Lazio: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Monza: 23 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Lazio

Monza

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Lazio651011:416
16Monza61149:154
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Lazio vs Monza?

Lazio 3-1 Monza (half time 2-0).

Did the Lazio vs Monza tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 3.5. The tip won.

See also