J1 LeagueMatchday 11

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Verdy: prediction, tips and stats

Wednesday 21 October · 11:00

Yokohama F. Marinos

1-1 2-0 1-1 2-0 0-0

1.5:0.9Pre-match

Verdy

0-2 1-3 1-1 0-0 0-2

Our tips

Tip in 7d 7h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloYokohama F. Marinos168454%56%Draw25%25%Verdy153521%20%

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS46%O2.543%42%|exp. goals 1.5 : 0.9

H2Hlast 5 meetings

24/05/202624/05/26Verdy0:6Yokohama F. MarinosW
28/02/202628/02/26Yokohama F. Marinos3:2VerdyW
09/08/202509/08/25Verdy1:0Yokohama F. MarinosL
05/04/202505/04/25Yokohama F. Marinos0:0VerdyD
29/06/202429/06/24Yokohama F. Marinos1:2VerdyL

Yokohama F. Marinos's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.0 goals per match

Cornersleague corners9.0league 9.4under 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 9.0 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.

Yellow cardsleague yellows2.8league 2.6over 2.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 2.8 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.

Refereeawaiting appointment

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Model1.6 : 0.9total 2.4Attack/defence1.5 : 0.9total 2.4

Yokohama F. Marinos : Verdy

Most likely scores

Model1-014%1-112%2-011%0-09%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-013%1-113%2-010%0-010%2-19%0-18%

ModelAttack/defence1-01-014%1-013%1-11-112%1-113%2-02-011%2-010%0-00-09%0-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%

Outcome	Model	Attack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat	79%77%	77%
Under 3.5 goals	78%79%	79%
12 – no draw	75%73%	73%
Over 1.5 goals	69%68%	68%
Under 2.5 goals	57%58%	58%
1 – Yokohama F. Marinos win	54%50% · Elo 56%	50%· Elo 56%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	46%50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	43%42%	42%
Under 1.5 goals	31%32%	32%
X – draw	25%27% · Elo 25%	27%· Elo 25%
Over 3.5 goals	22%21%	21%
2 – Verdy win	21%23% · Elo 20%	23%· Elo 20%

Attack vs defence

Yokohama F. Marinos attack vs Verdy defenceattack1529defence1503+26 pts to the attack

Verdy attack vs Yokohama F. Marinos defenceattack1348defence1508−160 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 66%close to the league averageunderover 34%

We expect 7.5 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

7.547%53%

8.534%39%

9.523%28%

10.515%23%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Yokohama F. Marinoswe expect 4.2, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 41%

Verdywe expect 3.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 35%

Foulsleague average

Over 19.5 · 73%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 27%over

We expect 23.2 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

18.579%58%

19.573%49%

20.567%42%

21.560%35%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Yokohama F. Marinoswe expect 11.3, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 66%

Verdywe expect 12.4, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 67%

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%

We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.560%54%

3.538%35%

4.521%19%

5.510%13%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Yokohama F. Marinoswe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 35%

Verdywe expect 1.8, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 54%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Verdy score only 0.6 goals per game
Verdy: no win in 12 matches
Verdy: only 4 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Yokohama F. Marinos: 18 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Yokohama F. Marinos: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
Verdy: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form