Eerste DivisieMatchday 10

Jong Ajax Amsterdam 0-3 VVV Venlo: prediction, tips and result

Friday 9 October · 19:00

Jong Ajax Amsterdam

1-1 1-0 0-2 1-6 0-0

0-3Full time(half time 0-1)

VVV Venlo

2-0 2-3 3-1 3-1 2-4

Stadium:: Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 9 October 2026, 11:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Total Goals: Over 2.5Won74%

our numbers: 3.8 goals in total in this match, league average 3.3

For the brave

Correct Score: 1:2Lost8%

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloJong Ajax Amsterdam114734%29%Draw22%25%VVV Venlo130944%46%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS76%63%O2.577%61%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.6not both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

17/03/202617/03/26VVV Venlo0:1Jong Ajax AmsterdamW
26/09/202526/09/25Jong Ajax Amsterdam2:4VVV VenloL
07/03/202507/03/25VVV Venlo1:0Jong Ajax AmsterdamL
01/11/202401/11/24Jong Ajax Amsterdam0:1VVV VenloL
03/05/202403/05/24VVV Venlo2:0Jong Ajax AmsterdamL

Jong Ajax Amsterdam's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses2.2 goals per match

Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.5under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 15

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.3under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.won · ended 2

Refereeawaiting appointment

Dutching(several bets at once)66%1X1:2coverageleague 75% · H2H 1/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.9 : 2.2total 4.1Attack/defence1.5 : 1.6total 3.1

Jong Ajax Amsterdam : VVV Venlo

Most likely scores

Market1-18%1-28%2-17%2-27%0-1—1-0—1-36%Attack/defence1-111%1-29%2-18%2-27%0-17%1-06%1-3—

MarketAttack/defence1-11-18%1-111%1-21-28%1-29%2-12-17%2-18%2-22-27%2-27%0-10-1—0-17%1-01-0—1-06%1-31-36%1-3—

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	92%82%	82%
12 – no draw	78%76%	76%
Our tip: Over 2.5 goals	77%61%	61%
Both teams to score: yes	76%63%	63%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	66%65%	65%
Over 3.5 goals	58%38%	38%
1X – home team avoid defeat	56%60%	60%
2 – VVV Venlo win	44%40% · Elo 46%	40%· Elo 46%
Under 3.5 goals	42%62%	62%
1 – Jong Ajax Amsterdam win	34%35% · Elo 29%	35%· Elo 29%
Both teams to score: no	24%37%	37%
Under 2.5 goals	23%39%	39%
X – draw	22%24% · Elo 25%	24%· Elo 25%
Under 1.5 goals	8%18%	18%

Attack vs defence

Jong Ajax Amsterdam attack vs VVV Venlo defenceattack1404defence1484−80 pts to the attack

VVV Venlo attack vs Jong Ajax Amsterdam defenceattack1514defence1427+87 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 10.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%

We expect 10.5 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

9.560%57%

10.548%40%

11.537%32%

12.527%24%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Jong Ajax Amsterdamwe expect 5.3, league average 5.5 · chance of over 5.5: 43%

VVV Venlowe expect 5.4, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 62%

Foulsleague average

Over 23.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over

We expect 24.9 in this match, 23.4 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

22.564%48%

23.557%46%

24.551%35%

25.544%32%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Jong Ajax Amsterdamwe expect 13.6, league average 12.0 · chance of over 12.5: 58%

VVV Venlowe expect 11.6, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 48%

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 66%close to the league averageunderover 34%

We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.556%58%

3.534%30%

4.518%21%

5.58%11%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Jong Ajax Amsterdamwe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 36%

VVV Venlowe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 49%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Jong Ajax Amsterdam concede 2.4 goals per game
VVV Venlo score 2.6 goals per game
VVV Venlo: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
VVV Venlo: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Jong Ajax Amsterdam: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
VVV Venlo: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

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