EredivisieMatchday 8

Feyenoord 2-0 AZ Alkmaar: prediction, tips and result

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Feyenoord
5-22-23-17-05-0
2-0Full time(half time 1-0)
AZ Alkmaar
1-01-13-25-22-0
Stadium:
Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam
Referee:
Danny Makkelie

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Lost66%

under 3.5 card points in 6 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 7 (60% of league matches); 2.0 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 2.3 in the visitors', league average 3.4; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls – Feyenoord: Under 9.5Lost59%

    Feyenoord: under 9.5 fouls in 5 of their last 7 league matches, AZ Alkmaar's opponents committed under 9.5 in 5 of 7 (53% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – AZ Alkmaar: Under 4.5Won62%

    our numbers for AZ Alkmaar: 4.1 shots on target against a league average of 4.7

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Lost45%

2.0 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 2.3 in the visitors', league average 3.4; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloFeyenoord180856%47%Draw22%28%AZ Alkmaar174722%25%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS66%61%O2.569%62%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.2not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Feyenoord1:1AZ AlkmaarD
  2. AZ Alkmaar3:3FeyenoordD
  3. AZ Alkmaar0:1FeyenoordW
  4. Feyenoord3:2AZ AlkmaarW
  5. AZ Alkmaar0:1FeyenoordW
Feyenoord's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 13
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.7league 3.1under 3.5: 72%Expected yellow cards: 2.7 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.lost · ended 4
RefereeD. Makkelie−0.2 yellow cards vs average43 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%11:1coverageleague 55% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.3total 3.5Attack/defence1.9 : 1.2total 3.2
Feyenoord : AZ Alkmaar
Most likely scores
Market1-19%2-19%2-07%1-0—3-17%1-2—2-26%Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-08%1-08%3-16%1-26%2-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-110%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-07%2-08%1-01-0—1-08%3-13-17%3-16%1-21-2—1-26%2-22-26%2-2—
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals88%83%83%
1X – home team avoid defeat78%76%76%
12 – no draw78%77%77%
Over 2.5 goals69%62%62%
Both teams to score: yes66%61%61%
1 – Feyenoord win56%53% · Elo 47%53%· Elo 47%
Under 3.5 goals53%61%61%
Over 3.5 goals47%39%39%
X2 – away team avoid defeat44%47%47%
Both teams to score: no34%39%39%
Under 2.5 goals31%38%38%
X – draw22%23% · Elo 28%23%· Elo 28%
2 – AZ Alkmaar win22%24% · Elo 25%24%· Elo 25%
Under 1.5 goals12%17%17%
Attack vs defence
Feyenoord attack vs AZ Alkmaar defenceattack1655defence1588+67 pts to the attack
AZ Alkmaar attack vs Feyenoord defenceattack1574defence1622−48 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 9.7 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
9.549%51%
10.538%41%
11.527%33%
12.519%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Feyenoordwe expect 5.4, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 45%
AZ Alkmaarwe expect 4.1, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 19.7 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
18.557%59%
19.549%50%
20.541%43%
21.534%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Feyenoordwe expect 9.0, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 41%
AZ Alkmaarwe expect 10.7, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Referee: 19.6 fouls per match on average (33 matches in our data)+0.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 50%close to the league averageunderover 50%
We expect 2.7 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.574%71%
2.550%47%
3.528%28%
4.514%13%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Feyenoordwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
AZ Alkmaarwe expect 1.3, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 39%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Feyenoord score 3.0 goals per game
  • AZ Alkmaar matches average only 1.8 cards (league 3.2) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • AZ Alkmaar score 2.4 goals per game
  • Feyenoord: unbeaten in 16 matches
  • AZ Alkmaar: unbeaten in 13 matches
  • Feyenoord: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • AZ Alkmaar: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Feyenoord

AZ Alkmaar

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Feyenoord862027:720
3AZ Alkmaar861118:819
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?

Feyenoord 2-0 AZ Alkmaar (half time 1-0).

Did the Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5. The tip lost.

See also