EliteserienMatchday 12
HamKam vs Rosenborg: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%O2.561%60%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.6
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Rosenborg4:0HamKamL
- HamKam4:0RosenborgW
- Rosenborg2:0HamKamL
- HamKam0:2RosenborgL
- Rosenborg1:0HamKamL
HamKam's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 10.9over 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.1league 3.3under 3.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 3.1 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.7total 3.2Attack/defence1.5 : 1.6total 3.1
HamKam : RosenborgMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-29%2-18%0-17%2-27%1-0—Attack/defence1-111%1-29%2-18%0-17%2-27%1-06%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-18%2-18%0-10-17%0-17%2-22-27%2-27%1-01-0—1-06%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%76% | 76% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 67%66% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%60% | 60% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%62% | 62% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 56%59% | 59% |
| 2 – Rosenborg win | 44%41% · Elo 44% | 41%· Elo 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%38% | 38% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%40% | 40% |
| 1 – HamKam win | 33%35% · Elo 30% | 35%· Elo 30% |
| X – draw | 24%24% · Elo 26% | 24%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%18% | 18% |
Attack vs defence
HamKam attack vs Rosenborg defenceattack1441defence1528−87 pts to the attack
Rosenborg attack vs HamKam defenceattack1571defence1446+125 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 10.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.569%55%
9.557%43%
10.546%35%
11.535%21%
Each team on its own
HamKamwe expect 4.6, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 32%
Rosenborgwe expect 6.1, league average 4.0 · chance of over 4.5: 70%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 67%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 33%over
We expect 23.4 in this match, 20.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.574%56%
20.567%52%
21.561%43%
22.554%35%
Each team on its own
HamKamwe expect 11.3, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 56%
Rosenborgwe expect 12.4, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 67%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.578%73%
2.555%50%
3.533%28%
4.517%12%
Each team on its own
HamKamwe expect 1.7, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Rosenborgwe expect 1.2, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- HamKam concede 2.4 goals per game
- Rosenborg score 2.8 goals per game
- HamKam: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Rosenborg: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- HamKam: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Rosenborg: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40:31 | 34 |
| 11 | HamKam | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 33:46 | 26 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win HamKam vs Rosenborg?
Rosenborg are the favourites. Chances: HamKam win 33%, draw 24%, Rosenborg win 44%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in HamKam vs Rosenborg?
Expected goals: 3.2 (HamKam 1.5, Rosenborg 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is HamKam vs Rosenborg?
The Eliteserien match kicks off 24 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).