1. LigaMatchday 12
Puszcza vs Lechia Gdansk: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%O2.552%50%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- Lechia Gdansk0:2PuszczaW
- Puszcza4:1Lechia GdanskW
Puszcza's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses3.5 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners10.8league 11.1under 11.5: 60%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 11.1 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 11.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.3 : 1.5total 2.8Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7
Puszcza : Lechia GdanskMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-08%1-29%0-18%2-18%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-09%1-28%0-19%2-18%0-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-08%1-09%1-21-29%1-28%0-10-18%0-19%2-12-18%2-18%0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%72% | 72% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 67%62% | 62% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 60%65% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52%50% | 50% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48%50% | 50% |
| 2 – Lechia Gdansk win | 40%35% · Elo 48% | 35%· Elo 48% |
| 1 – Puszcza win | 33%38% · Elo 25% | 38%· Elo 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%28% | 28% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Puszcza attack vs Lechia Gdansk defenceattack1442defence1497−55 pts to the attack
Lechia Gdansk attack vs Puszcza defenceattack1548defence1528+20 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 8.2 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.570%64%
7.556%48%
8.543%36%
9.531%28%
Each team on its own
Puszczawe expect 3.8, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Lechia Gdanskwe expect 4.5, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 63%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 24.4 in this match, 25.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.547%54%
25.540%51%
26.534%44%
27.529%36%
Each team on its own
Puszczawe expect 12.0, league average 13.1 · chance of over 13.5: 33%
Lechia Gdanskwe expect 12.2, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.576%74%
2.552%49%
3.530%28%
4.515%16%
Each team on its own
Puszczawe expect 1.4, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Lechia Gdanskwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lechia Gdansk: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Puszcza: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Lechia Gdansk concede a lot late on: 7 of 16 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Lechia Gdansk: newly promoted
- Puszcza: 5 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Lechia Gdansk: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 18 | Puszcza | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8:13 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Puszcza vs Lechia Gdansk?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Puszcza win 33%, draw 27%, Lechia Gdansk win 40%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Puszcza vs Lechia Gdansk?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Puszcza 1.3, Lechia Gdansk 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Puszcza vs Lechia Gdansk?
The 1. Liga match kicks off 24 October 2026, 16:45 (UK time).