LaLigaMatchday 9
Osasuna vs Santander: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%58%O2.558%57%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Santander2:4OsasunaW
- Osasuna0:2SantanderL
- Osasuna3:1SantanderW
- Santander4:1OsasunaL
- Osasuna1:3SantanderL
Osasuna's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses4.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.7over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.4under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.3total 3.0Attack/defence1.8 : 1.2total 3.0
Osasuna : SantanderMost likely scores
Market1-112%2-19%1-08%2-07%1-27%3-1—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-09%2-08%1-26%3-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-111%2-12-19%2-110%1-01-08%1-09%2-02-07%2-08%1-21-27%1-26%3-13-1—3-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 73%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%57% | 57% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%48% | 48% |
| 1 – Osasuna win | 47%52% · Elo 43% | 52%· Elo 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%43% | 43% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%35% | 35% |
| 2 – Santander win | 27%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 26%24% · Elo 29% | 24%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Osasuna attack vs Santander defenceattack1469defence1401+68 pts to the attack
Santander attack vs Osasuna defenceattack1444defence1451−7 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over
We expect 9.6 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.573%67%
8.561%53%
9.549%40%
10.537%31%
Each team on its own
Osasunawe expect 6.3, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 58%
Santanderwe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 25.4 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.566%55%
23.560%48%
24.554%43%
25.547%36%
Each team on its own
Osasunawe expect 13.1, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 63%
Santanderwe expect 12.5, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 58%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.574%69%
3.555%48%
4.535%34%
5.521%24%
Each team on its own
Osasunawe expect 2.5, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 44%
Santanderwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Osasuna concede 2.1 goals per game
- Osasuna score a lot late on: 9 of 22 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Santander: newly promoted
- Osasuna: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Santander: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13:23 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:18 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Osasuna vs Santander?
Osasuna are the favourites. Chances: Osasuna win 47%, draw 26%, Santander win 27%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Osasuna vs Santander?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Osasuna 1.7, Santander 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Santander?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is Osasuna vs Santander?
The LaLiga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 13:00 (UK time).