LaLigaMatchday 9
Valencia vs Ath Bilbao: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 3d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%52%O2.546%47%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Ath Bilbao0:1ValenciaW
- Valencia2:0Ath BilbaoW
- Valencia0:1Ath BilbaoL
- Ath Bilbao1:0ValenciaL
- Valencia1:0Ath BilbaoW
Valencia's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses1.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.7over 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.4under 4.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.4total 2.5Attack/defence1.3 : 1.3total 2.6
Valencia : Ath BilbaoMost likely scores
Market1-114%0-110%1-0—0-09%1-29%2-1—0-28%Attack/defence1-113%0-19%1-010%0-08%1-28%2-18%0-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-110%0-19%1-01-0—1-010%0-00-09%0-08%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-1—2-18%0-20-28%0-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 75%75% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%73% | 73% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 71%63% | 63% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 57%64% | 64% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: no | 49%48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46%47% | 47% |
| 2 – Ath Bilbao win | 43%36% · Elo 31% | 36%· Elo 31% |
| 1 – Valencia win | 29%37% · Elo 40% | 37%· Elo 40% |
| X – draw | 28%27% · Elo 29% | 27%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%28% | 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Valencia attack vs Ath Bilbao defenceattack1450defence1563−113 pts to the attack
Ath Bilbao attack vs Valencia defenceattack1498defence1465+33 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.565%67%
8.552%53%
9.540%40%
10.529%31%
Each team on its own
Valenciawe expect 4.5, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 30%
Ath Bilbaowe expect 4.2, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 59%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 21.6 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.541%55%
23.535%48%
24.528%43%
25.523%36%
Each team on its own
Valenciawe expect 10.3, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 35%
Ath Bilbaowe expect 11.0, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 42%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 4.3 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.580%69%
3.562%48%
4.543%34%
5.527%24%
Each team on its own
Valenciawe expect 2.9, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 53%
Ath Bilbaowe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Ath Bilbao matches average only 3.4 cards (league 4.7) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Ath Bilbao: only 9 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Valencia: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Ath Bilbao: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ath Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:15 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Valencia vs Ath Bilbao?
Ath Bilbao are the favourites. Chances: Valencia win 29%, draw 28%, Ath Bilbao win 43%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Ath Bilbao?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Valencia 1.1, Ath Bilbao 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Ath Bilbao?
The chance that both teams score is 51%.
When is Valencia vs Ath Bilbao?
The LaLiga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).