LaLigaMatchday 9
Villarreal vs Elche: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%57%O2.566%60%|exp. goals 2.1 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Villarreal2:1ElcheW
- Elche1:3VillarrealW
- Elche3:1VillarrealL
- Villarreal4:0ElcheW
- Elche1:0VillarrealL
Villarreal's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.7under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.4under 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.4 : 1.0total 3.4Attack/defence2.1 : 1.1total 3.1
Villarreal : ElcheMost likely scores
Market2-110%1-19%2-09%1-0—3-18%3-07%Attack/defence2-110%1-110%2-09%1-09%3-17%3-07%
MarketAttack/defence2-12-110%2-110%1-11-19%1-110%2-02-09%2-09%1-01-0—1-09%3-13-18%3-17%3-03-07%3-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%82% | 82% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 85%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 82%79% | 79% |
| 1 – Villarreal win | 67%61% · Elo 58% | 61%· Elo 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66%60% | 60% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59%57% | 57% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56%62% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44%38% | 38% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41%43% | 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34%40% | 40% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 33%40% | 40% |
| X – draw | 18%21% · Elo 24% | 21%· Elo 24% |
| 2 – Elche win | 15%18% · Elo 18% | 18%· Elo 18% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%18% | 18% |
Attack vs defence
Villarreal attack vs Elche defenceattack1590defence1444+146 pts to the attack
Elche attack vs Villarreal defenceattack1440defence1508−68 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 9.0 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.566%67%
8.554%53%
9.541%40%
10.530%31%
Each team on its own
Villarrealwe expect 5.5, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
Elchewe expect 3.6, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 50%close to the league averageunderover 50%
We expect 23.8 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.557%55%
23.550%48%
24.543%43%
25.537%36%
Each team on its own
Villarrealwe expect 11.6, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 48%
Elchewe expect 12.3, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 55%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 4.0 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.576%69%
3.557%48%
4.538%34%
5.522%24%
Each team on its own
Villarrealwe expect 2.6, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 48%
Elchewe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Villarreal11 matches in a row with BTTS at homeWent on 58%League 59%Model 59%Record 18
- Villarreal11 matches in a row over 2.5 goals at homeWent on 63%League 58%Model 66%Record 16
- Elche8 matches in a row with BTTS awayWent on 55%League 59%Model 59%Record 18
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Elche matches average only 7.5 corners (league 9.7) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Villarreal: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Elche: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11:17 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Villarreal vs Elche?
Villarreal are the favourites. Chances: Villarreal win 67%, draw 18%, Elche win 15%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Elche?
Expected goals: 3.4 (Villarreal 2.4, Elche 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 66%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Elche?
The chance that both teams score is 59%.
When is Villarreal vs Elche?
The LaLiga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:15 (UK time).