LaLigaMatchday 8

Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal: prediction, tips and result

·

Real Madrid
4-00-14-13-21-2
1-0Full time(half time 0-0)
Villarreal
3-13-11-22-30-1
Stadium:
Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Referee:
Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 3.5Lost56%

our numbers: 4.0 goals in total in this match, league average 2.8; over 3.5 goals in 4 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 7 (28% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Match Result: Real MadridWon71%

    Real Madrid: won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings; won 5 of their last 7 league matches

  • Shots on Target – Villarreal: Over 3.5Won61%

    Villarreal: 7.0 shots on target a match, Real Madrid's opponents had 4.4 on average, league average 3.8; over 3.5 shots on target in 7 of their last 7 league matches (51% of league matches)

  • Fouls – Real Madrid: Under 10.5Won62%

    our numbers for Real Madrid: 9.7 fouls against a league average of 11.8; Real Madrid: 7.4 fouls a match, Villarreal's opponents committed 11.7 on average, league average 11.8

  • Offsides – Real Madrid: Under 2.5Lost60%

    Real Madrid: under 2.5 offsides in 6 of their last 7 league matches, Villarreal's opponents were caught offside under 2.5 times in 5 of 7 (64% of league matches)

For the brave
Correct Score: 3:1Lost8%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloReal Madrid211172%68%Draw15%20%Villarreal188613%12%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%62%O2.574%66%|exp. goals 2.2 : 1.2not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Villarreal0:2Real MadridW
  2. Real Madrid3:1VillarrealW
  3. Villarreal1:2Real MadridW
  4. Real Madrid2:0VillarrealW
  5. Villarreal4:4Real MadridD
Real Madrid's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.7over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.won · ended 12
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.4under 4.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 28%.lost · ended 8
RefereeI. Diaz de Mera Escuderos+0.5 yellow cards vs average25 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%U4.54:1coverageleague 88% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.8 : 1.1total 3.9Attack/defence2.2 : 1.2total 3.4
Real Madrid : Villarreal
Most likely scores
Market2-19%1-17%2-08%3-18%3-08%1-0—Attack/defence2-110%1-19%2-08%3-17%3-06%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence2-12-19%2-110%1-11-17%1-19%2-02-08%2-08%3-13-18%3-17%3-03-08%3-06%1-01-0—1-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals90%85%85%
1X – home team avoid defeat87%81%81%
12 – no draw85%80%80%
Over 2.5 goals74%66%66%
1 – Real Madrid win72%61% · Elo 68%61%· Elo 68%
Both teams to score: yes62%62%62%
Our tip: Over 3.5 goals53%44%44%
Under 3.5 goals47%56%56%
Both teams to score: no38%38%38%
X2 – away team avoid defeat28%39%39%
Under 2.5 goals26%34%34%
X – draw15%20% · Elo 20%20%· Elo 20%
2 – Villarreal win13%19% · Elo 12%19%· Elo 12%
Under 1.5 goals10%15%15%
Attack vs defence
Real Madrid attack vs Villarreal defenceattack1689defence1498+191 pts to the attack
Villarreal attack vs Real Madrid defenceattack1596defence1595+1 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 64%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 36%over
We expect 9.9 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.575%67%
8.564%52%
9.552%40%
10.540%31%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Real Madridwe expect 6.1, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 56%
Villarrealwe expect 4.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 21.3 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.539%54%
23.533%48%
24.527%42%
25.521%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Real Madridwe expect 9.7, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 28%
Villarrealwe expect 11.6, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 48%
Referee: 22.2 fouls per match on average (25 matches in our data)−0.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.572%69%
3.552%48%
4.533%35%
5.518%24%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Real Madridwe expect 2.3, league average 2.2 · chance of over 2.5: 40%
Villarrealwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 43%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Real Madrid score 2.5 goals per game
  • Villarreal: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Real Madrid: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Villarreal: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Real Madrid

Villarreal

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Real Madrid860219:818
11Villarreal822413:138
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal (half time 0-0).

Did the Real Madrid vs Villarreal tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 3.5. The tip lost.

See also