AllsvenskanMatchday 23

Malmo FF 1-0 Kalmar: prediction, tips and result

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Malmo FF
0-31-00-04-10-2
1-0Full time(half time 0-0)
Kalmar
0-50-10-10-10-0
Stadium:
Eleda Stadion, Malmo
Referee:
Oscar Johnson

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Under 10.5Won57%

under 10.5 corners in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (53% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Offsides – Kalmar: Over 1.5Lost70%

    Kalmar: 1.5 offsides a match, Malmo FF's opponents were caught offside 3.4 times on average, league average 1.3; our numbers for Kalmar: 2.5 offsides against a league average of 1.3

  • Fouls – Malmo FF: Over 11.5Won66%

    our numbers for Malmo FF: 13.4 fouls against a league average of 10.9; Malmo FF: 14.7 fouls a match, Kalmar's opponents committed 12.0 on average, league average 10.9

  • Shots on Target: Under 8.5Lost57%

    under 8.5 shots on target in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (48% of league matches); 7.4 shots on target a match in the hosts' matches, 7.0 in the visitors', league average 8.9

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost11%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloMalmo FF156155%59%Draw24%22%Kalmar139721%19%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%50%O2.558%51%|exp. goals 1.9 : 0.9not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Kalmar2:2Malmo FFD
  2. Kalmar2:2Malmo FFD
  3. Malmo FF5:0KalmarW
  4. Kalmar1:0Malmo FFL
  5. Malmo FF1:0KalmarW
Malmo FF's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.2under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.3over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 42% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 7%.won · ended 4
RefereeO. Johnson+0.8 yellow cards vs average15 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%O2.51:1coverageleague 65% · H2H 3/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.1total 3.0Attack/defence1.9 : 0.9total 2.7
Malmo FF : Kalmar
Most likely scores
Market1-09%2-09%1-111%2-110%3-0—0-0—3-16%Attack/defence1-012%2-011%1-111%2-110%3-07%0-07%3-1—
MarketAttack/defence1-01-09%1-012%2-02-09%2-011%1-11-111%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-0—3-07%0-00-0—0-07%3-13-16%3-1—
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals81%76%76%
1X – home team avoid defeat79%83%83%
12 – no draw76%77%77%
Under 3.5 goals65%71%71%
Over 2.5 goals58%51%51%
Both teams to score: yes58%50%50%
1 – Malmo FF win55%60% · Elo 59%60%· Elo 59%
X2 – away team avoid defeat45%40%40%
Under 2.5 goals42%49%49%
Both teams to score: no42%50%50%
Over 3.5 goals35%29%29%
X – draw24%23% · Elo 22%23%· Elo 22%
2 – Kalmar win21%17% · Elo 19%17%· Elo 19%
Under 1.5 goals19%24%24%
Attack vs defence
Malmo FF attack vs Kalmar defenceattack1570defence1430+140 pts to the attack
Kalmar attack vs Malmo FF defenceattack1396defence1551−155 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.556%64%
8.543%52%
9.531%40%
10.521%29%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Malmo FFwe expect 4.3, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Kalmarwe expect 3.4, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 26%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 65%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 35%over
We expect 24.0 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.571%61%
21.565%54%
22.558%47%
23.551%38%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Malmo FFwe expect 13.4, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 75%
Kalmarwe expect 11.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 55%
Referee: 20.2 fouls per match on average (20 matches in our data)−0.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 66%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 34%over
We expect 3.4 in this match, 2.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.585%65%
2.566%44%
3.544%25%
4.526%13%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Malmo FFwe expect 1.1, league average 1.1 · chance of over 1.5: 29%
Kalmarwe expect 2.5, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 70%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Kalmar score only 0.7 goals per game
  • Kalmar: 4 defeats in a row
  • Kalmar: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Kalmar: newly promoted
  • Malmo FF: 23 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Kalmar: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Malmo FF

Kalmar

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Malmo FF23113938:3336
14Kalmar23541421:3719
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Malmo FF vs Kalmar?

Malmo FF 1-0 Kalmar (half time 0-0).

Did the Malmo FF vs Kalmar tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Under 10.5. The tip won.

See also