AllsvenskanMatchday 24
Sirius vs Elfsborg: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 3hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%60%O2.556%58%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Elfsborg1:3SiriusW
- Sirius4:0ElfsborgW
- Elfsborg4:3SiriusL
- Sirius4:1ElfsborgW
- Elfsborg2:0SiriusL
Sirius's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses4.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.2under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.3under 3.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 8%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.2total 2.9Attack/defence1.8 : 1.3total 3.0
Sirius : ElfsborgMost likely scores
Market1-112%2-110%1-08%2-08%1-27%2-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-08%2-08%1-27%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-08%1-08%2-02-08%2-08%1-21-27%1-27%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 74%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59%60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%58% | 58% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Sirius win | 48%50% · Elo 48% | 50%· Elo 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%42% | 42% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41%40% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%36% | 36% |
| 2 – Elfsborg win | 27%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| X – draw | 26%24% · Elo 25% | 24%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Sirius attack vs Elfsborg defenceattack1627defence1508+119 pts to the attack
Elfsborg attack vs Sirius defenceattack1523defence1488+35 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 52%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.561%64%
8.548%53%
9.535%40%
10.525%29%
Each team on its own
Siriuswe expect 4.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
Elfsborgwe expect 4.1, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 21.0 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.551%61%
21.544%54%
22.537%47%
23.531%38%
Each team on its own
Siriuswe expect 10.9, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Elfsborgwe expect 10.0, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 42%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%66%
2.544%44%
3.523%25%
4.510%13%
Each team on its own
Siriuswe expect 1.0, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 25%
Elfsborgwe expect 1.5, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sirius: 4 wins in a row
- Elfsborg: 22 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Sirius: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Elfsborg: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 53:28 | 54 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 35:22 | 40 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sirius vs Elfsborg?
Sirius are the favourites. Chances: Sirius win 48%, draw 26%, Elfsborg win 27%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sirius vs Elfsborg?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Sirius 1.7, Elfsborg 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Elfsborg?
The chance that both teams score is 59%.
When is Sirius vs Elfsborg?
The Allsvenskan match kicks off 18 October 2026, 13:00 (UK time).