MLS

DC United vs New York Red Bulls: prediction, tips and stats

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DC United
2-10-01-23-30-4
1.5:1.4Pre-match
New York Red Bulls
4-10-31-01-00-2
Referee:
Guido Gonzales Jr

Our tips

Tip in 21h 29m

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloDC United129050%35%Draw24%28%New York Red Bulls137726%38%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS64%58%O2.563%54%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. New York Red Bulls4:4DC UnitedD
  2. DC United0:2New York Red BullsL
  3. New York Red Bulls1:2DC UnitedW
  4. New York Red Bulls2:2DC UnitedD
  5. DC United1:4New York Red BullsL
DC United's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses4.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.0under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 4.1under 4.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
RefereeG. Gonzales Jr+0.6 yellow cards vs average13 matches

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.3total 3.2Attack/defence1.5 : 1.4total 2.9
DC United : New York Red Bulls
Most likely scores
Market1-111%2-19%1-27%1-07%0-1—2-07%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-28%1-08%0-18%2-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-27%1-28%1-01-07%1-08%0-10-1—0-18%2-02-07%2-06%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals84%78%78%
12 – no draw76%74%74%
1X – home team avoid defeat74%64%64%
Both teams to score: yes64%58%58%
Over 2.5 goals63%54%54%
Under 3.5 goals59%68%68%
1 – DC United win50%39% · Elo 35%39%· Elo 35%
X2 – away team avoid defeat50%62%62%
Over 3.5 goals41%32%32%
Under 2.5 goals37%46%46%
Both teams to score: no36%42%42%
2 – New York Red Bulls win26%36% · Elo 38%36%· Elo 38%
X – draw24%26% · Elo 28%26%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals16%22%22%
Attack vs defence
DC United attack vs New York Red Bulls defenceattack1393defence1476−83 pts to the attack
New York Red Bulls attack vs DC United defenceattack1465defence1418+47 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.555%55%
9.543%44%
10.531%33%
11.522%25%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
DC Unitedwe expect 5.1, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 41%
New York Red Bullswe expect 3.9, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 20.6 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.548%53%
21.541%46%
22.534%40%
23.528%35%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
DC Unitedwe expect 10.1, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 43%
New York Red Bullswe expect 10.2, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Referee: 22.4 fouls per match on average (141 matches in our data)+0.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.559%59%
3.537%39%
4.520%20%
5.59%11%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
DC Unitedwe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
New York Red Bullswe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 41%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

DC United

New York Red Bulls

League position

Eastern Conference

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8New York Red Bulls281061238:5236
12DC United27612934:4630
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

DC United are the favourites. Chances: DC United win 50%, draw 24%, New York Red Bulls win 26%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.

How many goals will there be in DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

Expected goals: 3.2 (DC United 1.9, New York Red Bulls 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 63%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Will both teams score in DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

The chance that both teams score is 64%.

When is DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

The MLS match kicks off 15 October 2026, 00:30 (UK time).

Who is the referee for DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

The referee is Guido Gonzales Jr. In 13 matches in our data they showed 4.6 yellow cards a match on average.

See also