Inter Miami vs New York City: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 22h 14mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS66%62%O2.572%64%|exp. goals 2.1 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- New York City2:3Inter MiamiW
- Inter Miami5:1New York CityW
- New York City0:4Inter MiamiW
- Inter Miami2:2New York CityD
- New York City1:1Inter MiamiD
Inter Miami's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses4.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 10.0under 10.5: 61%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.1under 4.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.5 : 1.3total 3.8Attack/defence2.1 : 1.2total 3.3
Inter Miami : New York CityMost likely scores
Market2-19%1-18%3-18%2-07%1-0—3-06%2-2—Attack/defence2-110%1-110%3-17%2-08%1-07%3-0—2-26%
MarketAttack/defence2-12-19%2-110%1-11-18%1-110%3-13-18%3-17%2-02-07%2-08%1-01-0—1-07%3-03-06%3-0—2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89%84% | 84% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 82%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 82%78% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66%62% | 62% |
| 1 – Inter Miami win | 64%56% · Elo 59% | 56%· Elo 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51%42% | 42% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 49%58% | 58% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 36%44% | 44% |
| Both teams to score: no | 34%38% | 38% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28%36% | 36% |
| X – draw | 18%22% · Elo 23% | 22%· Elo 23% |
| 2 – New York City win | 18%22% · Elo 18% | 22%· Elo 18% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11%16% | 16% |
Attack vs defence
Inter Miami attack vs New York City defenceattack1682defence1577+105 pts to the attack
New York City attack vs Inter Miami defenceattack1474defence1493−19 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.556%55%
9.543%44%
10.532%33%
11.522%25%
Each team on its own
Inter Miamiwe expect 5.3, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 43%
New York Citywe expect 3.8, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 68%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 32%over
We expect 24.5 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.574%53%
21.568%46%
22.561%40%
23.555%35%
Each team on its own
Inter Miamiwe expect 13.2, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 73%
New York Citywe expect 11.8, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 61%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.564%59%
3.542%39%
4.524%20%
5.512%11%
Each team on its own
Inter Miamiwe expect 2.1, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 61%
New York Citywe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Inter Miami9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals at homeoverall: 4Went on 61%League 64%Model 72%Record 14
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Inter Miami score 2.3 goals per game
- Inter Miami: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Inter Miami: only 11 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 19 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- New York City: only 7 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Inter Miami: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- New York City: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 68:50 | 49 |
| 10 | New York City | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 42:38 | 33 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Inter Miami vs New York City?
Inter Miami are the favourites. Chances: Inter Miami win 64%, draw 18%, New York City win 18%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Inter Miami vs New York City?
Expected goals: 3.8 (Inter Miami 2.5, New York City 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 72%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Inter Miami vs New York City?
The chance that both teams score is 66%.
When is Inter Miami vs New York City?
The MLS match kicks off 15 October 2026, 00:30 (UK time).