Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City: prediction, tips and stats
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- Referee:
- Joshua Encarnacion
Our tips
Tip in 18h 50mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%55%O2.574%66%|exp. goals 2.5 : 0.9
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Sporting Kansas City0:3Nashville SCW
- Nashville SC1:2Sporting Kansas CityL
- Sporting Kansas City1:2Nashville SCW
- Sporting Kansas City2:1Nashville SCL
Nashville SC's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.0under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 4.1under 4.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
RefereeJ. Encarnacion+1.2 yellow cards vs average3 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market3.0 : 0.9total 3.9Attack/defence2.5 : 0.9total 3.4
Nashville SC : Sporting Kansas CityMost likely scores
Market2-09%2-18%3-09%1-0—3-18%1-1—4-07%Attack/defence2-010%2-19%3-09%1-08%3-18%1-18%4-0—
MarketAttack/defence2-02-09%2-010%2-12-18%2-19%3-03-09%3-09%1-01-0—1-08%3-13-18%3-18%1-11-1—1-18%4-04-07%4-0—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 91%88% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%85% | 85% |
| 12 – no draw | 88%83% | 83% |
| 1 – Nashville SC win | 79%71% · Elo 74% | 71%· Elo 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74%66% | 66% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%55% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54%44% | 44% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 46%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%45% | 45% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26%34% | 34% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 21%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 12%17% · Elo 16% | 17%· Elo 16% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10%15% | 15% |
| 2 – Sporting Kansas City win | 9%12% · Elo 10% | 12%· Elo 10% |
Attack vs defence
Nashville SC attack vs Sporting Kansas City defenceattack1546defence1339+207 pts to the attack
Sporting Kansas City attack vs Nashville SC defenceattack1440defence1624−184 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over
We expect 9.7 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.563%55%
9.550%44%
10.539%33%
11.528%25%
Each team on its own
Nashville SCwe expect 6.3, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 59%
Sporting Kansas Citywe expect 3.9, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 20.9 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.551%53%
21.544%46%
22.537%40%
23.530%35%
Each team on its own
Nashville SCwe expect 10.5, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Sporting Kansas Citywe expect 9.1, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 31%
Referee: 26.8 fouls per match on average (4 matches in our data)+4.9 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%59%
3.538%39%
4.521%20%
5.510%11%
Each team on its own
Nashville SCwe expect 2.1, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 60%
Sporting Kansas Citywe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Nashville SC9 wins in a row at homeoverall: 3Went on 71%League 46%Model 79%Record 9
- Nashville SC15 matches unbeaten at homeoverall: 4Went on 82%League 72%Model 91%Record 19
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sporting Kansas City concede 2.2 goals per game
- Nashville SC score 2.4 goals per game
- Nashville SC: 23 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 17 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Nashville SC: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sporting Kansas City: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SCEastern Conference | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 59:22 | 63 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas CityWestern Conference | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 35:68 | 22 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
Nashville SC are the favourites. Chances: Nashville SC win 79%, draw 12%, Sporting Kansas City win 9%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
Expected goals: 3.9 (Nashville SC 3.0, Sporting Kansas City 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 74%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
The MLS match kicks off 15 October 2026, 01:30 (UK time).
Who is the referee for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
The referee is Joshua Encarnacion. In 3 matches in our data they showed 5.3 yellow cards a match on average.