USL Championship

Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington SC: prediction, tips and stats

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Las Vegas Lights
2-01-12-31-02-3
1.3:1.4Pre-match
Lexington SC
0-03-13-26-04-1

Our tips

Tip in 3d 20h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloLas Vegas Lights140929%30%Draw25%27%Lexington SC153246%43%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%54%O2.559%49%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.4
H2Hlast 4 meetings
  1. Lexington SC2:0Las Vegas LightsL
  2. Las Vegas Lights2:1Lexington SCW
  3. Las Vegas Lights1:0Lexington SCW
  4. Lexington SC0:0Las Vegas LightsD
Las Vegas Lights's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss1.5 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.2under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 4.2under 4.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.7total 3.0Attack/defence1.3 : 1.4total 2.6
Las Vegas Lights : Lexington SC
Most likely scores
Market1-112%0-17%1-29%1-0—2-17%0-0—0-27%Attack/defence1-113%0-110%1-29%1-09%2-18%0-08%0-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%0-10-17%0-110%1-21-29%1-29%1-01-0—1-09%2-12-17%2-18%0-00-0—0-08%0-20-27%0-2—
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals82%74%74%
12 – no draw75%73%73%
X2 – away team avoid defeat71%66%66%
Under 3.5 goals63%73%73%
Both teams to score: yes62%54%54%
Over 2.5 goals59%49%49%
1X – home team avoid defeat54%61%61%
2 – Lexington SC win46%39% · Elo 43%39%· Elo 43%
Under 2.5 goals41%51%51%
Both teams to score: no38%46%46%
Over 3.5 goals37%27%27%
1 – Las Vegas Lights win29%34% · Elo 30%34%· Elo 30%
X – draw25%27% · Elo 27%27%· Elo 27%
Under 1.5 goals18%26%26%
Attack vs defence
Las Vegas Lights attack vs Lexington SC defenceattack1427defence1499−72 pts to the attack
Lexington SC attack vs Las Vegas Lights defenceattack1563defence1455+108 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.556%51%
8.542%34%
9.530%28%
10.521%24%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Las Vegas Lightswe expect 4.3, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Lexington SCwe expect 3.8, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 20.4 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.540%63%
22.533%52%
23.527%46%
24.521%41%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Las Vegas Lightswe expect 9.9, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 30%
Lexington SCwe expect 10.2, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.570%70%
2.544%55%
3.523%39%
4.511%17%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Las Vegas Lightswe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Lexington SCwe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 33%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Las Vegas Lights

Lexington SC

League position

Western Conference

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Lexington SC281351049:3344
10Las Vegas Lights281061237:4136
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington SC?

Lexington SC are the favourites. Chances: Las Vegas Lights win 29%, draw 25%, Lexington SC win 46%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.

How many goals will there be in Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington SC?

Expected goals: 3.0 (Las Vegas Lights 1.3, Lexington SC 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Will both teams score in Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington SC?

The chance that both teams score is 62%.

When is Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington SC?

The USL Championship match kicks off 18 October 2026, 03:30 (UK time).

See also