New Mexico United 3-1 Monterey Bay FC: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 11 October · 02:00

New Mexico United

4-4 0-0 2-3 0-1 2-1

3-1Full time(half time 2-0)

Monterey Bay FC

2-1 2-3 0-1 1-1 1-1

Stadium:: Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park, Albuquerque, NM

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 10 October 2026, 22:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Both Teams To Score: YesWon61%

goals at both ends in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (52% of league matches)

For the brave

Correct Score: 1:1Lost10%

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloNew Mexico United153758%65%Draw22%20%Monterey Bay FC133120%15%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%52%O2.563%51%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.0both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

09/08/202609/08/26Monterey Bay FC2:5New Mexico UnitedW
21/09/202521/09/25Monterey Bay FC1:1New Mexico UnitedD
24/04/202524/04/25New Mexico United1:0Monterey Bay FCW
18/08/202418/08/24New Mexico United3:2Monterey Bay FCW
02/06/202402/06/24Monterey Bay FC1:0New Mexico UnitedL

New Mexico United's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.2 goals per match

Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.2under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 10

Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.2under 4.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.won · ended 4

Refereeno referee data

Dutching(several bets at once)74%O2.51:1coverageleague 60% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market2.1 : 1.2total 3.3Attack/defence1.7 : 1.0total 2.7

New Mexico United : Monterey Bay FC

Most likely scores

Market1-110%1-07%2-110%2-08%3-17%0-0—0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-010%3-1—0-07%0-16%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-112%1-01-07%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-010%3-13-17%3-1—0-00-0—0-07%0-10-1—0-16%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	84%76%	76%
1X – home team avoid defeat	80%79%	79%
12 – no draw	78%76%	76%
Over 2.5 goals	63%51%	51%
Our tip: Both teams to score: yes	61%52%	52%
Under 3.5 goals	59%71%	71%
1 – New Mexico United win	58%55% · Elo 65%	55%· Elo 65%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	42%45%	45%
Over 3.5 goals	41%29%	29%
Both teams to score: no	39%48%	48%
Under 2.5 goals	37%49%	49%
X – draw	22%24% · Elo 20%	24%· Elo 20%
2 – Monterey Bay FC win	20%21% · Elo 15%	21%· Elo 15%
Under 1.5 goals	16%24%	24%

Attack vs defence

New Mexico United attack vs Monterey Bay FC defenceattack1535defence1423+112 pts to the attack

Monterey Bay FC attack vs New Mexico United defenceattack1377defence1445−68 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%

We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

7.562%50%

8.549%35%

9.537%29%

10.526%25%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New Mexico Unitedwe expect 4.9, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 54%

Monterey Bay FCwe expect 4.0, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 56%

Foulsleague average

Under 22.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%

We expect 22.5 in this match, 22.5 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

21.555%63%

22.548%51%

23.541%45%

24.535%40%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New Mexico Unitedwe expect 9.9, league average 11.0 · chance of over 10.5: 40%

Monterey Bay FCwe expect 12.7, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 60%

Offsidesleague average

Over 2.5 · 56%close to the league averageunder 44%over

We expect 2.9 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

1.579%70%

2.556%54%

3.534%37%

4.518%16%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New Mexico Unitedwe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 51%

Monterey Bay FCwe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 35%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Monterey Bay FC concede 2.0 goals per game
New Mexico United matches average 6.0 cards (league 4.4) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
Monterey Bay FC matches average 11.2 corners (league 9.2) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
New Mexico United: 6 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
Monterey Bay FC: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form