USL ChampionshipMatchday 611

Sacramento Republic 1-0 Tulsa: prediction, tips and result

Monday 2 November · 02:00

Sacramento Republic

3-2 1-1 1-1 1-0 3-2

1-0Full time(half time 0-0)

Tulsa

0-2 2-4 0-0 1-1 1-0

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 1 November 2026, 22:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Total Goals: Under 2.5Won58%

under 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings; under 2.5 goals in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (51% of league matches)

Other tips

Corners: Under 9.5Won60%
10.1 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 6.5 in the visitors', league average 9.2

For the brave

Correct Score: 1:0Won14%

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2Elo

Sacramento Republic158357%50%Draw25%26%Tulsa151917%24%favourite won

Goalsattack/defence

BTTS43%41%O2.541%35%|exp. goals 1.3 : 0.8not both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

04/10/202604/10/26Tulsa1:1Sacramento RepublicD
06/08/202606/08/26Tulsa1:0Sacramento RepublicL
08/03/202608/03/26Sacramento Republic2:0TulsaW
08/06/202508/06/25Sacramento Republic0:1TulsaL
29/03/202529/03/25Tulsa1:0Sacramento RepublicL

Sacramento Republic's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses1.4 goals per match

Cornersleague corners

8.9league 9.2under 9.5: 60%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 8

Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league

4.2league 4.2under 4.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.lost · ended 5

Referee

no referee data

Dutching(several bets at once)

70%11:1coverageleague 55% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.6 : 0.7total 2.3Attack/defence1.3 : 0.8total 2.1

Sacramento Republic : Tulsa

Most likely scores

Market1-015%1-112%0-011%2-012%0-1—2-19%Attack/defence1-015%1-113%0-013%2-010%0-110%2-18%

MarketAttack/defence1-01-015%1-015%1-11-112%1-113%0-00-011%0-013%2-02-012%2-010%0-10-1—0-110%2-12-19%2-18%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat	82%76%	76%
Under 3.5 goals	79%84%	84%
12 – no draw	74%70%	70%
Over 1.5 goals	68%62%	62%
Our tip: Under 2.5 goals	59%66%	66%
1 – Sacramento Republic win	57%46% · Elo 50%	46%· Elo 50%
Both teams to score: no	57%59%	59%
Both teams to score: yes	43%41%	41%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	42%54%	54%
Over 2.5 goals	41%35%	35%
Under 1.5 goals	32%38%	38%
X – draw	25%30% · Elo 26%	30%· Elo 26%
Over 3.5 goals	21%16%	16%
2 – Tulsa win	17%24% · Elo 24%	24%· Elo 24%

Attack vs defence

Sacramento Republic attack vs Tulsa defenceattack1523defence1582−59 pts to the attack

Tulsa attack vs Sacramento Republic defenceattack1478defence1634−156 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 7.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%

We expect 7.5 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

6.562%59%

7.547%48%

8.534%32%

9.523%26%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sacramento Republicwe expect 4.6, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 48%

Tulsawe expect 2.8, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 31%

Foulsleague average

Over 23.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over

We expect 24.3 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

22.560%56%

23.553%48%

24.547%44%

25.540%38%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sacramento Republicwe expect 11.4, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 46%

Tulsawe expect 13.1, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 63%

Offsidesleague average

Over 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over

We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.574%58%

3.554%39%

4.535%18%

5.520%14%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sacramento Republicwe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 44%

Tulsawe expect 2.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 68%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Tulsa matches average only 6.5 corners (league 9.2) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
Sacramento Republic: unbeaten in 13 league matches
Sacramento Republic: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Tulsa: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form