El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 22hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%48%O2.550%42%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sacramento Republic1:2El Paso Locomotive FCW
- El Paso Locomotive FC1:0Sacramento RepublicW
- Sacramento Republic3:0El Paso Locomotive FCL
- El Paso Locomotive FC2:1Sacramento RepublicW
- Sacramento Republic2:0El Paso Locomotive FCL
El Paso Locomotive FC's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.6league 9.2under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.6 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 4.2under 4.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.4total 2.7Attack/defence1.2 : 1.2total 2.4
El Paso Locomotive FC : Sacramento RepublicMost likely scores
Market1-113%0-19%1-08%0-0—1-29%2-18%Attack/defence1-114%0-111%1-011%0-010%1-28%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-114%0-10-19%0-111%1-01-08%1-011%0-00-0—0-010%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-18%2-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%68% | 68% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%71% | 71% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%78% | 78% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 66%65% | 65% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 61%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55%48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%42% | 42% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%52% | 52% |
| 2 – Sacramento Republic win | 39%36% · Elo 36% | 36%· Elo 36% |
| 1 – El Paso Locomotive FC win | 34%35% · Elo 36% | 35%· Elo 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%22% | 22% |
| X – draw | 27%29% · Elo 28% | 29%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%32% | 32% |
Attack vs defence
El Paso Locomotive FC attack vs Sacramento Republic defenceattack1523defence1634−111 pts to the attack
Sacramento Republic attack vs El Paso Locomotive FC defenceattack1515defence1482+33 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 64%close to the league averageunderover 36%
We expect 7.6 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.549%51%
8.536%34%
9.525%28%
10.516%24%
Each team on its own
El Paso Locomotive FCwe expect 4.0, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 38%
Sacramento Republicwe expect 3.3, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 22.4 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.554%63%
22.547%52%
23.541%46%
24.534%41%
Each team on its own
El Paso Locomotive FCwe expect 11.5, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 47%
Sacramento Republicwe expect 10.9, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 41%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.578%70%
2.555%55%
3.533%39%
4.517%17%
Each team on its own
El Paso Locomotive FCwe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Sacramento Republicwe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- El Paso Locomotive FC7 matches in a row with BTTSat home: 4Went on 56%League 54%Model 55%Record 13
Worth knowing before kick-off
- El Paso Locomotive FC: 25 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Sacramento Republic: unbeaten in 11 matches
- El Paso Locomotive FC: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sacramento Republic: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 48:36 | 50 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 38:26 | 45 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: El Paso Locomotive FC win 34%, draw 27%, Sacramento Republic win 39%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic?
Expected goals: 2.7 (El Paso Locomotive FC 1.3, Sacramento Republic 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic?
The chance that both teams score is 55%.
When is El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic?
The USL Championship match kicks off 18 October 2026, 02:00 (UK time).